Fantasy Baseball - Back to Earth Outfielders
by Ryan Lester of Lester’s Legends
Here’s a look at some Outfielders who could struggle to match their 2008 production.
Johnny Damon - Damon had a great year for the Yankees (.303, 95 R, 168 H, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 29 SBs). At 35 you expect him to slow down at some point. I don’t expect him to completely drop off the map, but I’m putting him on a .290, 95 R, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 20 SB year. Solid numbers, but there will be better values.
Ryan Ludwick - Ludwick came out of nowhere to hit .299 with 104 Runs, 161 Hits, 40 Doubles, 37 HRs, and 113 RBI. Granted he played just 224 games, but from 2002-2007 he had 80 Runs, 160 Hits, 38 Doubles, 28 HRs, and 96 RBI. He did have 14 HRs in 303 At Bats (21.6 AB/HR) in 2007, however that number dropped to 14.5 (37 HRs in 538 ABs) in 2008. That’s quite a decrease. I’m guessing he finds himself somewhere in between those numbers in 2009. I’m seeing a .285, 85 R, 160 H, 32 Double, 28 HR, 100 RBI season for him. Not bad, but not in the elite company he shared last year.
Xavier Nady - Nady didn not play nearly as well for the Yankees compared to what he did with the Pirates.
Bucs - 89 games, 327 ABs, .330, 50 R, 108 H, 26 2B, 13 HR, 57 RBI
Yanks - 59 games, 228 ABs, .268, 26 R, 61 H, 11 2B, 12 HR, 40 RBI
He’s going to have to share ABs with Nick Swisher, which will limit his production. I’m predicting .280, 70 R, 130 H, 25 2B, 18 HR, and 75 RBI.
Pat Burrell - Pat leaves the launching pad in Philly for Tampa. According to ESPN’s Park Factor, Citizens Bank Park ranked 11th for HRs while Tropicana Field ranked 25th. That could put a damper on the 31 HRs Burrell has averaged over the past four seasons. I think he’ll be down to 25 HRs and 75 RBI.
Jack Cust - Cust has smashed a lot of HRs the past couple of seasons. He has 59 in 876 At Bats (14.85 AB/HR). The addition of Jason Giambi could cut into Cust’s At Bat totals, especially if he is the primary DH with Daric Barton manning First Base. I’d be surprised to see Cust hit more than 20 bombs.
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I can somewhat understand you adjusting Burrell’s HR totals, but what’s the reasoning behind the terrible RBIs? He’ll be hitting 5th-6th as a DH in the Rays lineup… 30+ HRs or not, I’d say it’s money in the bank for 90+ RBI.
Odd thing about Burrell is that he hit 12 HRs at home and 21 on the road. So I don’t think his power was a product of Citizens. However his road numbers are indicative of power in an average park and Tropicana is less than average.
i made a fricking side bet that Nady did NOT bat .300 at years end, since he ALWAYSSS falls off the table second half, of course 2008 is the one year he frickin keeps it up, kind of….
horrible