Rotoprofessor

2008 Statistics:
9 Wins
174.0 Innings
4.81 ERA
1.41 WHIP
158 Strikeouts (8.17 K/9)
68 Walks (3.52 BB/9)
.309 BABIP

Thoughts:
He came out like a madman, setting the world on fire and causing quite a stir among fantasy owners.  How about a 10 strikeout, 1 hit performance (a HR to Justin Upton) for 7 innings in his major league debut against the Diamondbacks?  In fact, he had had actually been perfect through the games first five innings!

While he continued to show flashes of brilliance throughout the season, there was also plenty of bad.  He had nine starts where he gave up at least 5 earned runs.  He only had two months where his ERA was under 5.40.  He was equally as bad on the road (4.92 ERA) as he was at home (4.71 ERA).

He showed a lot of strikeout potential, continuing his success from the minor leagues (career 9.3 K/9).  It’s tough to point to his success at the lower levels, given the fact that he pitched only 83 innings between Double & Triple A.  After last season there is little doubt that he will continue to be helpful there.

He also has good control, something that should help him significantly improve on his less then stellar WHIP.  It’s amazing his WHIP was as high as it was, given that his BABIP was right in the middle of the pack.  He certainly could lower that as well, making he’s likely to post a usable WHIP.

It’s the long ball that really haunted him, giving up 1.50 HR/9, the fifth worst in the league.  Granted, the ballpark plays a part (his teammate, Aaron Harang, was second worst, at 1.71), but so did the fact that he tied for the sixth worst HR/FB.  An improvement almost has to come there, which in turn would help his ERA.

2009 Projection:
185.0 IP, 10 W, 4.09 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 170 K (8.27 K/9), 62 BB (3.02 BB/9)

Conclusion:
Cueto showed signs of being a special player last season and while he may not fully realize that potential in 2009, I would expect him to make more strides too it.  With more experience, you have to expect him to start turning the corner.

As mentioned earlier, limiting the HR allowed (I’m projecting a HR/9 of 1.22) would go a long way in improving his performance.  Toss in the strikeouts and a WHIP and it certainly makes sense to take the gamble on him.

What do you think of Cueto?  Will he take the next step?  Is he someone you want to own?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.