Is Alfonso Soriano a 2nd Round Draft Pick?
There was a time when Alfonso Soriano was one of the most vaunted players in all of baseball, a consistent threat to post a 40/40 season. His past two seasons have seen a decline in his production, in part due to injuries (he played in 135 and 109 games), calling into question just how valuable he still is.
According to Mock Draft Central he currently has an ADP of 24.12, the eighth outfielder coming off the board. Is that a valid draft position? Should he still be selected among a drafts first two rounds?
Let’s first take a look at his numbers from last season:
453 At Bats
.280 Batting Average (127 Hits)
29 Home Runs
75 RBI
76 Runs
19 Stolen Bases
.344 On Base Percentage
.532 Slugging Percentage
.305 Batting Average on Balls in Play
We first have to discuss the injuries. Last season marked the second consecutive year he missed time with a leg injury (quadriceps and calf, respectively). He also suffered a broken finger last season, but that I would classify more in the fluky category. The consistent leg injuries have got to be a concern at this point, because it plays a huge role in his potential value.
The advantage he used to give you in both power and speed helped to make him one of the best in the league. He’s had three seasons of 40+ SBs and another two with over 30. The past two seasons has seen him post a pair of 19 SB years, however.
Considering that he is hitting atop the Cubs line-up, meaning he does not have the RBI potential that most power hitters possess, the loss of excessive SB puts a major dent in his value. If he is healthy and plays a full season then I easily could see him returning to the land of 25 SB, but at 33-years old it is hard for me to imagine him eclipsing that mark.
Yes, I know that he was on a better pace then that last season, but he was not in 2007. Throw in the risk of him potentially going down once again, and it all adds up.
We all know that he has power, which is something that has never been called into question. He has had at least 28 HR a season every year since 2002, including four years of over 30, and another one over 40. While it was thought that the move from RFK to Wrigley Field would only enhance his power numbers, that has not been the case.
His FB% has actually been below his 2006 pace since signing with the Cubs, though he has been right around his career average:
- 2004 - 47.3%
- 2005 - 47.1%
- 2006 - 51.4%
- 2007 - 46.3%
- 2008 - 48.0%
Think he was out to prove his value in that 2006 season and in turn cash in on a lucrative free agent contract? It certainly is not very far-fetched and the numbers don’t lie. He is more of a mid-30’s guy, as opposed to the player who exploded for 46.
He’s a career .282 hitter and has only once reached the .300 mark (in 2002). He’s never shown the ability to be an elite hitter, thanks mostly to below average plate discipline. He’s struck out 21.7% of the time over his career, and has been even worse the past three seasons:
- 2006 - 24.7%
- 2007 - 22.5%
- 2008 - 22.7%
Couple that with a 5.7% career walk rate and you get the idea. Don’t look for things to suddenly change. You know exactly what you are going to get.
Yes, he should have the ability to score runs hitting atop the Cubs line-up. He’ll have some very talented hitters looking to drive him in, including Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. In 2007 he crossed the plate 97 times, despite the injuries, so a healthy Soriano could easily exceed the 100 mark. Realistically, I’d bank on him at least surpassing 90 this season.
With all that said, let’s see what I’d project for him this season:
.282 (158-560), 33 HR, 81 RBI, 95 R, 22 SB, .314 BABIP, .328 OBP, .530 SLG
Those would be extremely impressive numbers, but are they second round impressive? While he has the potential to significantly exceed these numbers, at this point there is too much risk of the injury. He also does not bring the RBI potential of a slugger, nor the excessive SB potential of a speedster. That makes him a “tweener”.
To me, the loss of speed is the reason why I’m not going to select him. Carlos Beltran is going right around the same spot (21.29 ADP), and while he doesn’t have extreme SB potential either, he at least brings 100 RBI potential. What about Carlos Lee, with an ADP of 25.72? He too does not bring speed, but he has more RBI and a higher average.
There are just other options available I’d rather take, meaning that I would pass on Soriano in the second round. If he’s there in the third, then yeah, but not before. What about you? Is Soriano a player you want in the second round? Why or why not?
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
You can take him there, maybe get your value back, but its risky… Personally I’m not taking alfonso at all… The chance of injury is just too great to waste on my 2nd overall pick.
I’d rather take Beltran or Lee and make up the SBs later.
I’d rather take Soriano and make up the RBIs later.
In all seriousness, I think it’s easier to find an RBI producer that helps your power numbers than a SB producer that helps your power numbers. (Obvious, right?) Soriano was 3rd in SLG for any player with as many SBs (.532/19), following H. Ramirez (.540/35) and Holliday (.538/28). Of course if you grab Ramirez in the 1st round, Soriano becomes an afterthought and nobody is expecting COL-type numbers for Holliday in OAK. After Soriano, the next closest in SLG was… Beltran (.500/25). But he trailed Soriano by 32 points! So there’s a huge dropoff in power once you miss the top-2 in SB/SLG. Berkman was close with .567/18 but you’re fooling yourself if your expecting those many swipes from a guy who averaged 6+ SBs previous to last year.
I’d rather have a player thats on the field than one who is injured OFTEN. You can’t make up RBI’s if he’s not playing. Anyone can get hurt, but soriano is nearing the “injury prone” title… give me the “safer pick” that gets me 30-100 like Carlos Lee mentioned above then i’ll grab some speed in the upcoming rounds like Elsbury, kemp, McClouth, victorino, etc….
Fijis, I understand the idea of how successful he was when he was on the field, but like YNOT said, that’s the biggest concern with him. There are also a lot of sources of SB in the next few rounds, where you can pair someone like Carlos Lee with Ellsbury or Victorino or Hart and end up in a better spot.
Like it’s been mentioned with other players like Glaus, A-Rod, etc., you don’t just take a zero while that player is missing games, especially if you have DL spots. There are always lots of breakout performers at OF and if you draft someone like him you can always make sure your bench has a couple of OF with good upside. You might be able to mitigate some of that risk by making sure your next couple of OF’s are rock solid. I would definitely prefer him in the 3rd to the 2nd though. He was gone by my second in my 14 teamer and in the 9 teamer there were too many other less risky guys available to take him there at the 2/3 turn and he didn’t make it to my 4th in that one.
I have always been a Soriano guy. I drafted him in his first year with the Yankees and he helped me win a title with amazing production at 2B. Even though I’m a Mets fan, I saw him play a few times while he was on the Yanks, and the guy is one of the most gifted players I have ever seen in person.
So with my personal bias out of the way, PECOTA likes Soriano this year, and that’s good enough for me. Personally, I would rather gamble on a guy as athletic as Soriano straightening out his leg issues than take a guy like Lee, who could just fall off a cliff one of these years. We’ve seen what Soriano does when he is on the field… IMO, production is not something I am worried about.
As for his injuries, we’re really only talking about one season with injuries, and you could even call his calf injury fluky. I fully endorse Soriano as a second rounder.
Keith I couldn’t agree more re:Lee, he’s looked solid so far with the Astros, but there’s always a point in the year when his demeanor says “I don’t give a &*$%”. I’m a Rangers fan, so I’ve seen Soriano and Lee in person plenty of times, and although I may be wrong, I feel Lee is a risk in his own way, and I seem to remember he’s had one or two injury blips in the past himself. I’d take Soriano.