Rotoprofessor

Once again, it’s time for my weekly “Wild Predictions”.  If you are new to Rotoprofessor, keep in mind that these are occurrences that I wouldn’t expect to happen more then 20% of the time (in most cases, the chances are a lot less then that).  How far-fetched are this week’s predictions?  Let’s take a look…

Yovani Gallardo posts a WHIP of 1.19 or better
A career major league WHIP of 1.27 is impressive, but better things could certainly be ahead even if he continues to walk batters at a similar pace (3.0 BB/9 in the major leagues).  He has strikeout potential, which gives him an advantage in the WHIP department, as fewer balls are put in play against him.

Last season he only pitched 24.0 innings, so it is an extremely small sample size, but he only struck out 7.50 batters per 9 innings, not quite up to his potential.  In 2007 his K/9 was 8.24 and in his minor league career it was 10.4.  When I did my projection on him (click here to view), I had him at 8.81.

Even with a 3.14 BB/9, if he could post that strikeout rate and post a BABIP of .289, his WHIP comes in at 1.18.  Think that type of BABIP is impossible?  It would have placed him in a tie for 23rd in the league last season, so the number is not completely unrealistic.  Last season, in his abbreviated appearances, his BABIP was just .285.

Is it likely?  Not really, but it certainly is an attainable number.  Gallardo is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and this season, as the Brewers ace, he could realize that potential.

Chance of happening: 6%

Coco Crisp hits at least .300
He actually hit .300 right on the nose in 2005, but since then has struggled and hasn’t hit above .283.  The ‘05 season came with a very believable .326 BABIP, especially for a player with his speed.

What has changed is his ability to put the ball in play, striking out 16% or worse in each of the past three seasons.  Prior to that, his worst season was 15%, and that was in 2002 in just 127 AB.  In ‘05, his number was at 13.6%.

Now with the Royals, he knows he’s going to be in the line-up everyday, which may allow him to relax and not push as much.  In turn, that could result in his strikeouts coming down a bit, and therefore allow him to return to hitting .290, at least.

That certainly means there’s a chance he gets to .300, even if it’s a small one.

Chance of happening: 4%

What do you think?  Do either of these have a chance of happening?

In case you’ve missed them, here are the predictions I’ve made previously:

January 13 (click here to read)

• Derek Jeter will hit below .280
• Frank Francisco will pick up at least 40 saves while holding the closer’s job all season

January 20 (click here to read)

• Brad Lidge will save 30 games or less
• Edwin Encarnacion will hit at least 35 HR

January 27 (click here to read)

• Erik Bedard will win at least 18 games
• Willy Taveras will hit 5 HR

February 3 (click here to read)

• Ichiro scores less then 90 runs
• Rickie Weeks hits .290 or better

February 10 (click here to read)

• Carlos Beltran hits at least 45 HR
• Jose Ceda saves at least 25 games

February 17 (click here to read)

• Troy Tulowitzki drives in at least 120 RBI
• Zack Greinke strikes out at least 220 batters

February 24 (click here to read)

• Randy Johnson strikes out at least 200 batters
• Adam LaRoche drives in at least 120 RBI

March 3 (click here to read)

• Ryan Doumit hits at least 28 HR
• Ian Snell posts an ERA under 4.00

March 10 (click here to read)

• Rafael Furcal steals at least 40 bases
• Scott Kazmir wins 10 games or less

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.