Quick Hit: Alex Rios
2008 Statistics:
635 At Bats
.291 Batting Average (185 Hits)
15 Home Runs
79 RBI
91 Runs
32 Stolen Bases
.337 On Base Percentage
.461 Slugging Percentage
.335 Batting Average on Balls in Play
Thoughts:
Everyone wants to point to the decrease in power, from 24 in ‘07 to last season’s production, and say that he was an utter disappointment. The drop came courtesy of both a decline in FB% (44.1% to 38.3%) and HR/FB (10.0% to 7.4%). At 27-years old, that is the exact opposite of what was expected.
He still posted a solid average, though it has decreased each of the past three seasons after topping out at .302, and provided significantly more speed then anyone could have asked for. Yes, Rios didn’t chip in what was expected, but to say he was a complete disappointment would be a mistake.
In 2009, I would expect an improvement in his FB% leading to a return to his power stroke. He did hit 11 of his HR after the All-Star Break (which corresponded with a decrease in SB with 9) and managed to hit 47 doubles and 8 triples. There’s no doubt that the power is there.
The Blue Jays line-up is far from great, but if Vernon Wells can stay healthy, Rios will have a chance to reach 90 RBI and 90 R. That’s a combo any fantasy owner should covet.
2009 Projection:
.295 (184-624), 22 HR, 88 RBI, 90 R, 22 SB, .329 BABIP, .345 OBP, .490 SLG
Conclusion:
Projecting someone out as a 20/20 player is really not all that common, but something tells me that Rios is a player that deserves it. The drastic disappearance of his power in the first half last season just doesn’t appear realistic. He’s proven to be a 20+ HR guy and there’s no reason to think that he can’t return to that.
The development of the speed holds the real key to his value. While 30+ SB should not be expected once again, if he can exceed 20 then he is certainly a tremendously value asset.
What do you think? Can Rios achieve these lofty expectations or will he fall short?
Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.
Anyone who read my Overrated ADP article knows I will not necessarily agree. I don’t think it’s out of the question for him to get back to 20HR, but in that lineup, 90/90 should be tough. I think he has the potential to get there, but I’m going to be passing on Rios this year to wait and see what happenes. I just think there are better options at that 2nd OF spot. Hopefully I’m proven wrong cause I ended up stuck with him in an auction league this year from trying to bid him up!
haha…that’s always a tough game to play Wes. How much did you end up paying for him?
I think he’ll be fine. Hopefully Wells stays healthy because that would make a difference.
The health of Wells is worrisome. And that lineup is weak although Lind might surprise. However, I remember having both A. Ramirez (rookie season) and Giles when they played for the Pirates, and they put up good numbers at a cheap price.
I’d draft Rios, but I’m not overpaying. In a number of draft guides he’s ranked higher (projecting 25 HRs & 21 SBs) than Lee, Fielder, and Berkman. No way to that.
I think I got him at $22. Not Terrible, but the guy I was bidding against is a huge fan of his, guess he wasn’t buying it either.
so , i’m guessing that a 30/30 season would surprise you folks .
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 30 HR. I think the bigger surprise for me would be him repeating a 30 SB season. The falloff in the second half has me pretty skeptical.
If he’s going to the next level or his potential is what we see will be determined this year. I remember Leon Durham (1B Cubs) of many years past and the hype. After 5-6 years of hype, we realized he was what he was, the same may be true of Rios.