Fantasy Fallout: Mark Trumbo Heads To Arizona Highlighting 3-Team Trade

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday saw a major three-team trade get finalized:

Diamondbacks Get – OF Mark Trumbo & 2 Players to Be Named
White Sox Get – OF Adam Eaton
Angels Get – SP Tyler Skaggs & SP Hector Santiago

Who wins?  Let’s take a look at the fallout:

Diamondbacks Fallout:
They are obviously in need of a little thump to protect Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup, and maybe Trumbo can provide that.  There’s no questioning the power, with 66 HR over the past two seasons.  Over the course of his career it hasn’t matter where he played either:

  • Home – 45 HR
  • Road – 50 HR

Before we assume that the move to Arizona is going to mean even more power, last season Angel Stadium actually yielded more home runs per game (1.94 vs. Chase Field’s 1.84).

The problem with Trumbo is his inability to make consistent contact.  Over the past two seasons he’s posted strikeout rates of 26.1% and 27.1%, while also failing to make “good” contact (line drive rates of 16.0% and 17.0%).  He also has shown a potential pop up problem, with a career 14.3% IFFB.  As if all of that is bad enough, Trumbo is prone to chasing out of the zone (38.4% O-Swing% in ’13 as compared to the league average 31.0%), and also doesn’t make good contact when he does (59.8% O-Contact%).

The bottom line?  Sure, he should add some power but he is unlikely to hit for a high average and the change of scenery shouldn’t have an impact on his power.  If nothing else, there should be some concern that the strikeout rate increases as he switches leagues and has to become familiar with new pitchers.

Is he going to help lengthen the lineup?  Absolutely, but he may not be enough to force opposing pitchers to face Paul Goldschmidt.  Trumbo will provide power, but his fantasy value should remain unchanged.

White Sox Fallout:
The team needs a centerfielder, and there is no questioning that Eaton could be a great fit atop the lineup.  If the team hangs onto Alejandro De Aza, they could form a formidable 1-2 punch and wreak havoc on the basepaths.  Eaton’s 2013 was torpedoed by injuries, but he’s shown the upside of a double-digit HR hitter with speed (he had 46 SB between the minors and Majors in ’12).

It’s easy to look at his poor average in his brief time in the Majors (.254), though with his speed his .294 BABIP is obviously low.  He’s proven that he can make solid contact (13.1% strikeout rate in the minors over the past three seasons) and last season he also owned an 18.6% line drive rate.  He could easily be a .280/10/25 option, with 90+ runs feasible out of the leadoff spot.

In other words, he’s a great fantasy sleeper.

Angels Fallout:
The Angels needed help in the rotation and adding both Skaggs & Santiago is a coup.  That said, both pitchers also carry significant risk.  Santiago has always had potential control issues, and posted a 4.27 BB/9 as a starter.  Sure he strikes people out, but with nothing unbelievable in his luck metrics (.287 BABIP, 78.2% strand rate, 18.8% line drive rate) it is hard to imagine stellar numbers.

As for Skaggs, we all know about the upside but potential can only take you so far.  Over the past three seasons in the minor leagues he owns a 3.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.89 K/9 and 3.07 BB/9.  That said, a move to the AL is obviously going to have a negative impact on its own.  At Triple-A last season he was also hit hard, with a 21.0% line drive rate (league average was 16.0%).  It’s certainly something to watch, and he’d be nothing more than a fantasy flier.

What are your thoughts of the trade?  Who wins?  Who loses?

 

Posted on by Rotoprofessor. This entry was posted in Transaction Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

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2 Responses to Fantasy Fallout: Mark Trumbo Heads To Arizona Highlighting 3-Team Trade

  1. Milo says:

    The Angels have the most to gain. They needed SP and maybe Skaggs and Santiago will step up.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Absolutely, but both are far from guarantees. That said, turning Trumbo into two potentially valuable left handed starts was a great deal and well worth the risk

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