Analyzing the 4th Round of Fantasy Drafts

Well, we’ve done Round 1 (click here to view), Round 2 (click here to view) and Round 3 (click here to view), giving us a solid Top 36.  Today, we’re going to take a look at Round 4, plus an additional two players, rounding out my Top 50 heading into 2009.

So, with that said, let’s look at the list:

  1. C.C. Sabathia – New York Yankees
  2. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels
  3. Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays
  4. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles
  5. David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox
  6. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
  7. Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres
  8. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
  9. Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox
  10. Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
  11. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners
  12. Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves
  13. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers
  14. Geovanny Soto – Chicago Cubs

Notes:

  • The last two players removed from this list were Corey Hart and Alexei Ramirez.  Both certainly have the talent to produce as a Top 50 player, especially Hart, who is among the games best this spring.  Unfortunately, it is just Spring Training so time will tell if he can continue in the regular season.
  • David Ortiz is a tough player to peg, due to his sub par 2008 campaign.  While it is just Spring Training, he has shown signs of life (.313, 3 HR, 9 RBI), which is all fantasy owners could have asked for.  We all know he’s one of the best hitters in the game, just one that now comes with a little bit of risk.  He has the potential to be an absolute bargain at this point in the draft, which is why I wouldn’t shy away from him.
  • Ortiz’ Red Sox teammate, Kevin Youkilis, is another tough player to slot in.  He’s not one of the elite 1B, but in most formats he also has 3B eligibility, which certainly helps his cause.  He’s likely to regress from last season, but with that positional flexibility, he still has plenty of value.
  • Cole Hamels scares me.  He really does, mostly due to the stadium he calls home as well as the potential for missing the first week of the season.  He’s proven to be among the games elite starters and is certainly worthy of being drafted this early, but I’d be doing so with slight apprehension.
  • While catcher may not be as shallow as it once was, especially in two catcher formats, McCann is too valuable of a player to pass up.  Considering he hit .301 with 23 HR last season, he is a tremendous hitter in his own right.  Obviously, the pitcher does help as well.
  • The same could be said for Soto, who went .285 with 23 HR and 86 RBI last season.  Obviously, the runs scored (66 last season) is a bit of a detriment, so you’d have to be sure to either have already secured a run scorer, or get one in subsequent rounds.
  • I’ve discussed Ichiro in the past (click here to view), where I suggested to shy away from him early on.  Still, if you miss out on the speed options earlier, he’s a good fall back option (as is Jacoby Ellsbury a little later on).
  • I know, people don’t like taking closers this early (as we’ve been discussing a lot here), but when you have someone as dominant as Jonathan Papelbon, he is worth it.  While it’s rare that I end up with him, if he were on the board at the end of Round 4 I’d have to consider him.
  • For a team that is likely to struggle this season, the Orioles have two great players in Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts.  Don’t let the team fool you, these two can put up tremendous numbers this season and can easily help carry your fantasy team to greatness.

Which players do you think shouldn’t be here?  Who got left off?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

8 comments

  1. Ryan says:

    Shockingly, I would avoid Pap there. Rather take McCann.

  2. YNOT says:

    Yeah papi is a NO WAY, he’s pretty much on my do not draft list, right beside chipper….

    Hart had a hot spring last year too didn’t he? I mean yeah 20/20 is nice but i need better than a .260 average. Everyone was loving him long time last spring, if he bats .280+ he’s Gold, if he hits .268 or whatever again he’s still good, just not pusing towards great.

    Alot of people are up on markakis, some actually are down and think he’s overhyped/overvalued. Some people need to look back to his 2007 stat line.

    23/112/18 .300

    and in 2008 the homers, rbi’s, sb’s all went down some, but his runs went up a little, his walks went up tremendously from 61 BB to 99 while his K’s stayed put. He kicks the power back up a bit in 2009 and Markakis is in for a HUGE year.

  3. YNOT says:

    i do realize tejeda, a good tejeda, was in that line up with markakis….

  4. art says:

    I think that Markakis is WAAAy too low in your projections. I think that a line of .300/.400obp 100 25+ 110 15+ is a realistic possibility, and will hit more homeruns if he ever starts to put up more flyballs. Beltran, in contrast, is projected to have .270 105 27 105 20 (espn). Markakis is 25 and will only get better.

  5. art says:

    also, a home ballpark advantage goes to Markakis as well.

  6. fijis says:

    I’m not nearly as optimistic as ‘art’ (neither are Chone, Marcel nor Zips) but “we” project Markakis around .300/.380/.485 (115R, 90RBI, 10SB). I think that’s worth a 4th round pick. And Roberts projects around .285/.370/.425 (110R, 60RBI, 35SB). Yet another gem in the 4th.

    As an aside, with the projections predicting all these Rs coming out of Baltimore, who exactly is getting all the RBIs? :-)

    I’m no friend of Hamels’ 3000+ pitch count last season.

  7. Jimmy says:

    Guys, funny you talk about Markakis. The article I’m working on for this week will be on Markakis and what we can expect from him this year. I’ve been wavering on what I should write about (and I had a few ideas in mind), but I’m going to give an in depth- look at him later this week. So be sure to take a look!

  8. Rotoprofessor says:

    Jimmy, I look forward to reading it. I haven’t posted my projection for him yet, so I’ll be sure to have it then.

    And fijis, that’s a great question, especially considering most are expecting a drastic regression for Aubrey Huff. I hope everyone isn’t hanging their hats on Wieters, since who knows when he will actually arrive.

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