2009 Projection for Edinson Volquez

As the season nears, I’m trying to get in as many projections as possible.  Tonight, I’m looking at the Reds’ Edinson Volquez.  So, without further adieu, let’s take a look at my expectations:

190.0 IP, 14 W, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 184 K (8.72 K/9), 85 BB (4.03 BB/9)

For as good as he was in the early going, his second half saw a huge regression.  Maybe it was fatigue.  I know a lot of owners hope that was it.  He’s got a ton of talent, but he definitely brings concerns.  A HR/9 of 0.64 in that ballpark?  Groundball pitcher or not, I just can’t but it.  How about his struggles with his control, walking 4.27 per 9 innings last season?  I certainly think he’s going to be worth using as a #2 or 3 starter in your rotation, but I’d temper my expectations.

What does everyone else think?  Am I being too harsh?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

One comment

  1. Chuck says:

    For me, with Volquez, as with most power pitchers, velocity counts for a lot. When his fastball is in the upper 90′s, his MO of fastball/changeup works fine against any lineup. His fastball possesses good movement while the curve is a barely respectable table-setter.

    His development suggests that he could continue to stabilize (as he seems to have done over the past two seasons), but there is an obvious risk with respect to mental toughness. I don’t think your projections are too harsh, but I tend to feel that your k/9 may be a tick low; your W’s are higher than most projections, but I feel you’re about right there.

    Volquez is high risk/high ceiling, but he’s not the D-Train. He should be able to hold it together imo.

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