by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
We all know that ADP doesn’t mean everything, but it certainly is a good asset to use to help prepare for our drafts. While it does vary by site, the folks over at fantasypros.com average the top sites from around the internet giving us a good idea of where players are being drafted overall.
In reviewing the ADPs among third basemen, there was one ranking that surprised me:
- Evan Longoria – 21.4 average ADP
- David Wright – 22.8 average ADP
Wright is being drafted before Longoria on one of the five sites currently being used (Yahoo!). However, Longoria is only being drafted 3-4 picks before Wright in each of the other four. Really?
For me, it’s not even close. Wright may offer more in the SB department, but at his age and with the injuries he’s had, he’s not going to be a 30+ SB option any more (he’s been under 20 each of the past four seasons). Would it be shocking to see him hit under .300 (BABIP over .340 each of the past two seasons)? Throw in Citi Field leading to fewer HR and a lineup that is hardly impressive around him, and there are significant concerns.
Longoria may not offer speed and the average could top out at .280ish. However, he has significantly more power upside (30+ HR three times) and should also produce more in the RBI/R departments.
Look at the numbers from last season:
- Longoria – .269, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 91 R, 1 SB in 614 AB
- Wright – .307, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 63 R, 17 SB in 430 AB
Even if we want to say Wright could improve in the HR/RBI/R departments, Longoria is going to carry a large advantage (where Longoria should easily go 90/90, in the Mets’ lineup Wright is more 80/80ish).
According to the ADPs it’s a decision people are debating, but it’s not one I would. I would take Longoria every single time. How about you? Do you think these two are close? Why or why not?
*** Make sure to order Rotoprofessor’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide and be entered to win an autographed David Price mini bat! The guide comes complete with projections of over 600 players, expended rankings, sleepers, Top 50 prospects and so much more (including constant updates up until opening day). For just $6 you will get everything you need to dominate your fantasy league! For more information and to place your order, click here. ***
Make sure to check out all of our 2014 rankings: