Sound-Off: David Wright vs. Evan Longoria: Is It Even Close?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know that ADP doesn’t mean everything, but it certainly is a good asset to use to help prepare for our drafts.  While it does vary by site, the folks over at fantasypros.com average the top sites from around the internet giving us a good idea of where players are being drafted overall.

In reviewing the ADPs among third basemen, there was one ranking that surprised me:

  • Evan Longoria – 21.4 average ADP
  • David Wright – 22.8 average ADP

Wright is being drafted before Longoria on one of the five sites currently being used (Yahoo!).  However, Longoria is only being drafted 3-4 picks before Wright in each of the other four.  Really?

For me, it’s not even close.  Wright may offer more in the SB department, but at his age and with the injuries he’s had, he’s not going to be a 30+ SB option any more (he’s been under 20 each of the past four seasons).  Would it be shocking to see him hit under .300 (BABIP over .340 each of the past two seasons)?  Throw in Citi Field leading to fewer HR and a lineup that is hardly impressive around him, and there are significant concerns.

Longoria may not offer speed and the average could top out at .280ish.  However, he has significantly more power upside (30+ HR three times) and should also produce more in the RBI/R departments.

Look at the numbers from last season:

  • Longoria – .269, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 91 R, 1 SB in 614 AB
  • Wright – .307, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 63 R, 17 SB in 430 AB

Even if we want to say Wright could improve in the HR/RBI/R departments, Longoria is going to carry a large advantage (where Longoria should easily go 90/90, in the Mets’ lineup Wright is more 80/80ish).

According to the ADPs it’s a decision people are debating, but it’s not one I would.  I would take Longoria every single time.  How about you?  Do you think these two are close?  Why or why not?

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4 comments

  1. Marky Mark says:

    Yes, it would be shocking if Wright hit under .300….and it hardly seems fair to use injuries as a mark against him but then give Longoria a pass on his injury history.

    Wright has the edge in AVG and SB, Longoria the edge in HR, and the other stats are basically a push.

    Then again…I’d say both are going too high. I’ll pass on both of them and get one of the cheaper options a little later on.

  2. Sea says:

    Wright seems to be a favourite of many over the years, whether its name brand or emotional attachment, or just Mets fans.

    Last year in a H2H draft, somebody drafted Wright first OVERALL! Suffice to say he did not come close to winning the league (was a Mets fan too).

    I usually avoid Longo, but this year I’m definitely considering him if the slot is right.

  3. Wright will give you a bit more value in an OBP league, but I can’t fathom taking Wright over Longoria because Longoria will probably hit 30some HRs.

  4. bigwang says:

    a few thoughts:

    1. you cited citi field leading to fewer HR, but citi field actually has a park factor favourable to producing homeruns. both ESPN and fangraphs’ park factors illustrate this:
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2013/sort/HRFactor
    http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&teamid=0&season=2013

    if you just look at HR/game for any given park, then you’d find chase field yielding the same number of HR/game as citi field. but no one is ever going to call chase field a pitcher’s park.?the HR/game stat itself can be misleading because a lineup devoid of power can play in a hitter’s park and still struggle to homer.

    2. you mentioned “Would it be shocking to see him hit under .300 (BABIP over .340 each of the past two seasons)?”. this is not a strong argument. it’s like saying “would it be shocking to see longoria hit under .270″ or “would it be shocking if longoria only hit 22 homers”. of course not, because it’s baseball and anything can happen. i mean if wright hits .298 i’ll still happily take it.

    i don’t really see the point of rhetorics like this, especially when you try to talk up longoria’s upside at the same time. yes longoria has hit 30+ homers 3 times, but how many times has wright hit over .300? 7 times. in fact his career average is over .300, and his batted ball mix actually almost fully supports a BABIP of around .340.

    3. you question the quality of the mets lineup. but the mets in 2012 were pretty lousy as well (only slightly better than 2013, likely due to large part that wright played a full season).

    and if you compare wright’s 2012 to longoria’s 2013:
    Longoria – .269, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 91 R, 1 SB in 160 games
    Wright – .306, 21HR, 93 RBI, 91 R, 15 SB in 156 games

    clearly, even with a dismal lineup around him, wright can still produce 180+ R+RBI. can anyone look at the comparison above and say that the two aren’t close? i say it’s pretty close when both are healthy. and health is not something that you can assume for one and not the other in this case, given that longoria played in just 74 games in 2012 and 133 games in 2011.

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