Projections for Five Hitters

We are just hours away from Opening Day and I wanted to get a few more projections out there.  To kick things off this morning I have projections on five offensive players.  Let’s see what I’m expecting:

Ryan Braun
.292 (174-595), 36 HR, 112 RBI, 90 R, 17 SB, .325 BABIP, .340 OBP, .566 SLG

Evan Longoria
.268 (146-544), 28 HR, 94 RBI, 82 R, 6 SB, .316 BABIP, .336 OBP, .493 SLG

Carlos Quentin
.274 (141-515), 27 HR, 91 RBI, 82 R, 5 SB, .292 BABIP, .358 OBP, .501 SLG

Russell Martin
.285 (148-520), 15 HR, 68 RBI, 81 R, 15 SB, .312 BABIP, .380 OBP, .427 SLG

Brad Hawpe
.285 (144-505), 27 HR, 95 RBI, 77 R, 2 SB, .340 BABIP, .380 OBP, .521 SLG

Which of these do you agree with?  Which do you disagree?  Why?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

12 comments

  1. Ryan says:

    I think Braun scores more Runs. That Milwaukee Offense is pretty darn good.

    That’s just nitpicking though, nice job.

  2. big o says:

    projection for martin’s numbers are too low .

  3. Rotoprofessor says:

    Big O, I’m not surprised you (and others) believe I projected Martin out a little low. The truth is I’m just not as high on him as most are. I’m just curious, which of the numbers do you see as being low?

  4. Corey says:

    I’m honestly surprised fifteen different people haven’t came and said they think Longo’s numbers are too low. I agree, maybe a few more home runs, but they are good. I’d also give Hawpe a few more homers.

  5. Brian says:

    If Brad Hawpe is indeed better than Carlos Quinton this year, I’m probably in some trouble on one of my teams. I picked him late third round (so it was not a huge gamble on him), but I am hoping for 35 bomb and a .290 average. These numbers, which are probably good projections, aren’t going to give me the umph I need, good thing I got Beltran

  6. Rotoprofessor says:

    Corey, it’s tough for me to project Hawpe with more HR then I did. He’s got a career high of 29 HR, and I don’t really see him exceeding that number. Could he get to that number? Yes, I can but that, but as high on him as I am, I just don’t see him reaching 30+.

    Brian, with Quentin, I just see a major regression from last season. I just can’t see him matching the 20.7% HR/FB rate that he had last season.

  7. Russ says:

    17.6% in 2006. Not that I have much invested in the guy. Got him in the 4th round in a league with a couple ChiSux fans, so I just snagged him as a bargaining chip.

  8. big o says:

    my predictions for martin , if he bats ib the 2 hole :

    18 HR
    77 RBI
    90 Runs
    19 SBs

    will he spend any time @ 3rd base .
    manny will take a strike … will joe let him run ?

  9. YNOT says:

    Quentin hitting .274 and only 27 HR’s seems really low? He’ll hit at least 30…. I don’t even own him and believe he’ll hit more than you predict. Alot depends on the hand. I think he at least outperforms Hawpe.

  10. Rotoprofessor says:

    YNOT, like you said, the hand will play a major role in Quentin’s ability. Plus, I really think last season was a little bit of an aberration. A regression is very likely in my mind.

  11. Russ says:

    What’s the aberration? So far you’ve only cited HR/FB% which was only 3% higher than his previous high. What’s the reason for the “very likely” regression?

    I’m not even a Quentin fan, just wondering where this is coming from, as it seems like just a “gut feeling” you have.

  12. Rotoprofessor says:

    Russ:

    I would cite the HR/FB% and his FB% (went from 40.8% to 43.2%). I would also refer to his sudden plate discipline:

    In 2006 (166 AB) he had a K% of 20.5%
    In 2007 (229 AB) he had a K% of 23.6%

    Yes, those are abbreviated seasons, but I still don’t buy his 16.7% last season.

    The hand injury also certainly does play a part in things. Also, throw in that his career high in the minor leagues (including a 452 AB year in the Pacific Coast League), was just 21 HR.

    Granted, maybe he matured more then people expected, but while everyone expected him to be a very good player, no one expected him to do what he did last season. Until he proves that he can do it again, I am going to be very skeptical.

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