Final Wild Predictions
Well, we have not yet finished off our 30 Wild Predictions, so here’s the final four in quick format. If you are new to Rotoprofessor, keep in mind that these are occurrences that I wouldn’t expect to happen more then 20% of the time (in most cases, the chances are a lot less then that).
Rick Ankiel outperforms Carlos Quentin
This is not so much that I am excessively high on Ankiel, as I am down on Quentin. You saw it in my projections yesterday, I just don’t see him having the same type of success as he did in 2008. As for Ankiel, he has shown he has the power, so would it surprise anyone if he hits 35+ HR this season?
Chance of Happening: 10%
Cameron Maybin not only plays well, but avoids being demoted this season
OK, I’m not sure that I even believe this one. Maybin has shown no signs of being fully ready to excel at the major league level, much like Carlos Gomez last season. I could see the Marlins opting to leave him in the major leagues, but I just don’t see him being all that successful. (By successful, I’d say he has an average above .260, just as a guideline.) His only hope is that he can put the ball on the ground and utilize his speed. He is a blazer, so it’s not impossible.
Chance of Happening: 8%
Howie Kendrick will be a Top 5 Fantasy 2B
If he stays healthy he could have the potential, though he’d really need to fulfill it in one fell swoop to accomplish this. He may need to have a 20/20 campaign to surpass all of the guys ahead of him in the rankings, and that’s going to be the problem. His HR/FB of 4.1% last season doesn’t instill much hope that the power is fully developed at this point. An excessively highaverage could be his ticket to overcome this, and he’s shown the ability to do it past. He has the potential to consistently hit for a high BABIP, so if his discipline at the plate improves, it could happen.
Chance of Happening: 5%
Kenshin Kawakami is the most successful Japanese rookie pitcher…ever!
While some of the recent imports have struggled and not lived up to the hype (Kei Igawa anyone?), this prediction puts him head-to-head with Hideo Nomo who won the Rookie of the Year Award. Nomo went 13-6 with a 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 236 K that first season, making this a lofty notion, to say the least.
Kawakami is going to fall far from that strikeout total, which makes this a bit more difficult to reach. He has the potential to be an elite control artist, however, which certainly is going to help. He is going to need to pitch deep into games and pile up the W’s to have a shot.
Chance of Happening: 1%
So, what do you think of these predictions? Which could potentially happen? Which are seriously far-fetched?
For those who have missed any of the previous predictions, let’s take a look at the list:
1. Joel Zumaya saves at least 30 games
2. Nick Markakis leads the league in OBP
3. Derek Jeter will hit below .280
4. Frank Francisco will pick up at least 40 saves while holding the closer’s job all season
5. Brad Lidge will save 30 games or less
6. Edwin Encarnacion will hit at least 35 HR
7. Erik Bedard will win at least 18 games
8. Willy Taveras will hit 5 HR
9. Ichiro scores less then 90 runs
10. Rickie Weeks hits .290 or better
11. Carlos Beltran hits at least 45 HR
12. Jose Ceda saves at least 25 games
13. Troy Tulowitzki drives in at least 120 RBI
14. Zack Greinke strikes out at least 220 batters
15. Randy Johnson strikes out at least 200 batters
16. Adam LaRoche drives in at least 120 RBI
17. Ryan Doumit hits at least 28 HR
18. Ian Snell posts an ERA under 4.00
19. Rafael Furcal steals at least 40 bases
20. Scott Kazmir wins 10 games or less
21. Yovani Gallardo posts a WHIP of 1.19 or better
22. Coco Crisp hits at least .300
23. Jacoby Ellsbury steals 70 bases
24. Prince Fielder leads the league in RBI
25. Clayton Kershaw strikes out 190 batters or more
26. The Texas Rangers win the AL West
Topping Nomo is way wild and I just don’t see it. This has been a fun series.
I think the one with the best chance is Howie Kendrick. His biggest stumbling block is his health. If he can avoid injury for the whole year I think he will be a fantasy surprise, especially since he has no one pushing him for playing time, he could get 650 plate appearances. He’s going to hit 2nd in a lineup that will score a lot of runs, so he will have the opportunity for both runs and RBI’s, and there’s no question in my mind that he can hit 320. I know he’s not a power hitter like Uggla, but I can se him with maybe 15 long balls to go with 20 SB. I see 320BA-15HR-75RBI-105Runs-20SB. But his ability to stay on the field is the key.
How is Bedard going to win 18 games if Ichiro scores less than 90 runs? Ichiro is all that team has offensively. It just doesn’t add up.
I’m not expecting the Mariners to be high scoring to begin with, but the predictions are made independent of each other. They are unrelated, so I wouldn’t look at them like that. The chances of either happening are probably slim (though, with Ichiro hurt, who knows).