Colby Rasmus Is Red Hot, So Is Now The Time To Deal Him?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It would be easy to get caught up in Colby Rasmus’ recent hot streak, but he has always proven to be among the streakier players in the league. While he’s been on a home run binge of late, it’s easy to imagine the bottom dropping out before long.

Here are just a few numbers to keep in mind (all numbers are through Sunday):

  • Strikeouts – He owns a 32.9% strikeout rate, including a 31.7% mark in May
  • Fly Ball Rate – 52.3%, which would be a career high and appears to be coming at the expense of his line drive rate (15.1%)

Would we expect the line drive rate to improve? You would think so, but let’s not forget he did own a 16.5% mark back in 2011. Unfortunately it’s not a definite that he improves.

High strikeouts + High Fly balls? That’s the recipe for a terrible average, especially once his 20.0% HR/FB regresses.

While Rasmus has given us a nice ride, he always feels like the type of player who is going to thrive for 7-10 days, just long enough to entice us. Once he’s in our lineup? The home runs dry up and he becomes a drag on our average.

With that in mind, now appears to be the perfect time to try and cash in. Someone in your league is bound to buy into the “he’s finally put it together” hype. However, the average risk is very real and there’s a good chance that he slows down in the power department.

Shop around now before the wheels fall off and he starts looking like waiver wire fodder once again.

Note – This article was written prior to Rasmus injuring his hamstring last night.  He is still a sell high candidate, but it won’t be until he’s healthy.

Source – Fangraphs

3 comments

  1. Nick says:

    Can you possibly shed light on what’s up with Ian Desmond? I know he homered last night but he has been the weakest link on my team by far. What do the numbers say?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      There are significant issues right now:

      – Strikeouts are up (27.6%)
      – Popups are up (18.9% IFFB)
      – Line Drives are down (12.1%)

      It’s a complete mess, but he has a long enough track record to sit tight on him. Don’t give him away for pennies on the dollar, as he should improve

      • Nick says:

        Thanks. Trying to find a temp replacement for him would mean dropping a prospect like Bauer. Doesn’t help that I’m dead last in my league. Felt awesome on draft day and projections were great but it seems like my whole team has slumped to begin the year. Even Trout is underperforming for his standards. Aggravating.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *