Waiver Worthy: Which Hot Adds Are Worth Grabbing (Phil Hughes, Mitch Moreland & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Let’s take a quick look at the five most added players (according to CBS Sports as of Tuesday) to try and determine if they are worth adding or if fantasy owners should pass:

 

Garrett Jones – Miami Marlins – First Baseman
Add Percentage – 38%

He has power, with three seasons of 20+ HR in his career. He had gone through a recent hot stretch, which likely was the impetus for the sudden rush of ownership, and he is hitting .289 with 4 HR in May.

The power has been consistent, but the biggest difference to his April and May has been his strikeout rate (31.1% to 18.8%). With a career mark of 21.2%, May lies much closer to the truth. However he’s also sporting an overall .325 BABIP, far above his career mark of .288.

Sure, he’s a player to ride while he’s hot but the truth is he’s a .250ish hitter with a bit of pop. Don’t go too crazy.

I’d consider him over Mark Reynolds, Adam Lind (in other words, low level options)

 

Lonnie Chisenhall – Cleveland Indians – Third Baseman
Add Percentage - 36%

Does anyone really believe Chisenhall is a .371 hitter? His current line drive rate of 30.9% isn’t going to last and his BABIP of .441 is going to regress as well. With just 2 HR in 116 AB, he is going to need to hit for more power (5.4% HR/FB in ’14, 10.4% for his career) if he is going to maintain fantasy viability.

The potential concussion to Carlos Santana does make Chisenhall slightly more attractive, but he’s more of a player to use while he’s hot and nothing else. While buying him now makes sense, if he’s available, just be prepared that you could be getting him when the numbers are about to slide. Unless you’re desperate at 3B, I’d probably pass.

I’d consider him over David Freese (aka the bottom tier)

 

Sean Doolittle – Oakland A’s – Relief Pitcher
Add Percentage – 32%

We’ve talked about Doolittle a lot and all know that the ownership spike is thanks to him assuming the closers role. As long as he’s generating saves he’s a must own option and you are already likely too late.

I’d consider him over almost any reliever not currently closing

 

Mitch Moreland – Texas Rangers – First Baseman
Add Percentage – 22%

Moreland figures to get the bulk if playing time at 1B with Prince Fielder on the shelf for the season. He’s hitting .273, which is a manageable mark even with his .344 BABIP. That’s because there’s more power than he’s shown thus far, with a 6.1% HR/FB (career mark of 14.0%). While he has just 2 HR this season, he hit 23 a year ago and is a good bet to reach 20+ again this season.

The real question is if he is going to continue to be more of a platoon player, with a .167 average against LHP and .291 against RHP (for his career it’s .232/.261). We will have to wait and see how it plays out, but for now he’s a much better play when the Rangers have a slew of righties on the schedule.

That said, his upside makes him well worth owning. For me, he’s a better grab than both Lonnie Chisenhall or Garrett Jones as a corner infielder.

I’d consider him over Garrett Jones, Will Venable, Dexter Fowler (aka he’s a CI/OF5 type)

 

Phil Hughes – Minnesota Twins – Starting Pitcher
Add Percentage – 21%

It’s not a major surprise that Hughes has pitched well now that he’s out of Yankee Stadium. He’s 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, though don’t take that to mean that all is rosy.

His 0.99 BB/9 is a lock to regress…

Is that where the negatives end? You can argue that his .329 BABIP is on the unlucky side and his career road HR/9 is 0.88 (0.66 overall this season). Throw in a solid 9.1% SwStr% and there actually is an awful lot to like. Depending on your format, he’s well worth owning at this point.

I’d consider him over Trevor Bauer, Drew Smyly, Dan Haren

 

Sources – CBS Sports, Fangraphs

11 comments

  1. Bryan says:

    “I’d take him over…”, thanks for the additional info. Nice!

  2. TreeFrog says:

    Time to pick up Kendrys Morales?

  3. Mark says:

    You were a bit high on Haren at the start of the season. Has your opinion changed? Is he worth owning? I have too many SPs: Sale, Shields, Zimmerman, Chavez, and Haren. It probably makes sense to jettison one of them. Would you drop Haren?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I do still like Haren, despite the drop in Ks (6.8% SwStr%) and velocity. He still has tremendous control and has actually been unlucky (65.2% strand rate).

      I guess it depends on format, though. If you can’t trade him and need the spot, he can be dropped.

      What SP are currently available?

      • Mark says:

        Our league has a 1,000 inning limit, so I was considering dropping Haren for a backup position player. I don’t really need the spot for anything right now, except maybe a backup CI because Hanley is always a bit injury prone. Maybe I’ll just be a bit more selective about when to start Haren and Chavez. I’ve never tried streaming pitchers.

        Available SP: Hammel, Richards, Kluber, Peralta, Dickey, Beckett.

        • Ty says:

          I can’t believe Kluber is still available!! Got to pick him up he has been fantastic this season…

        • Rotoprofessor says:

          There certainly is pitching depth on waivers, but like Ty said Kluber should not be a free agent. I’d rather own him than Chavez or Haren, personally, so I would scoop him up immediately.

  4. Bryan says:

    If you could pick up and stash away just 1 current minor league prospect you feel is most likely to be useful in 2014 (redraft league), who would it be?

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