Waiver Worthy: Which Hot Adds Are Worth Grabbing (K. Davis, Arcia, De La Rosa & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Let’s take a quick look at the six most added players (according to CBS Sports as of Tuesday) to try and determine if they are worth adding or if fantasy owners should pass:

 

Khris Davis – Outfielder – Milwaukee Brewers
Add Percentage – 32%

Davis was a highly sought after “sleeper” entering the season, but a slow start caused many to cut bait quickly.  However, he turned the corner in May (.281, 6 HR, 16 RBI) and if you look at the overall metrics there’s room for further improvement.  The strikeout rate is a little below average (23.8%), he owns a .300 BABIP and 25.2% line drive rate.  While we’d like to see a few more walks (3.8%, though a 12.2% mark in the minors since 2011), there is room for improvement in the average department.

The power is also believable, coming courtesy of a 23.1% HR/OFB.  Since 2011 in the minors he owns a 19.1% mark, but he was at 22.2% in ’12 and 21.7% in ’13.

The fact is anyone who dropped him did so prematurely.  The upside remains, and it’s not a surprise that the market has corrected itself.  He’s worth owning in all formats.

 

Jorge De La Rosa – Starting Pitcher – Colorado Rockies
Add Percentage – 28%

He currently owns a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, so the question is if he’s finally figured it out.  Control has always been the biggest concern, but his 3.51 BB/9 is solid and has been fairly consistent over the first two months (3.77/3.21).  If he can maintain that, he has the stuff to succeed.

His 7.32 K/9 actually has upside, as his velocity is back up (92.8 mph) and his SwStr% sits at 10.6%.  That potential with his improved control and a career best 55.8% groundball rate and there’s an awful lot to like.  Of course, he pitches in Coors Field and it’s hardly a guarantee he can maintain his control, groundballs or line drive rate (15.3% leading to a .239 BABIP)…

If you are in a deeper format it makes sense to roll the dice, but in shallower leagues the risk actually outweighs the reward.

 

Rubby De La Rosa – Starting Pitcher – Boston Red Sox
Add Percentage – 27%

If I was going to gamble on one De La Rosa right now it would be Rubby. Make no mistake, despite the electric debut and significant strikeout potential, he does still carry significant risk.

We discussed him in detail prior to his debut (which you can view by clicking here), so we aren’t going to go into too much detail again. The truth is, he could significantly struggle with his control in any given start, and that could lead to significantly poor outings.

Of course, that strikeout rate is hard to ignore.

 

Collin McHugh – Starting Pitcher - Houston Astros
Add Percentage – 27%

No one saw this coming, but McHugh simply continues to get the job done with a 2.80 ERA and 0.98 WHIP (entering yesterday). Of course he’s benefited from a .261 BABIP (21.2% line drive rate) and has kept the ball in the ballpark thus far (0.60 HR/9).

Throw in a strikeout rate he probably can’t maintain and what is there to actually like? Ride him while you can, but I wouldn’t bank on counting on him.

 

Oscar Taveras – Outfielder – St. Louis Cardinals
Add Percentage – 23%

Is it really a surprise that he’s one of the most sought after players right now? The bigger surprise is that he was still available in so many leagues.

 

Oswaldo Arcia – Outfielder – Minnesota Twins
Add Percentage – 23%

Arcia recently returned from an injury/time in the minors and has looked good. Thus far he’s 12-34 with 2 HR and 4 RBI, which explains why he’s returning to people’s radars.

The problem? He continues to struggle with strikeouts, with an overall mark of 26.4%. He’s also hitting the ball in the air an awful lot, with a 52.6% mark. In other words, while he’s doing well right now the mix is there to go ice cold on a moments notice.

While we may want to say that it hasn’t been an issue in the minors, the past two seasons at Triple-A he’s posted OFB of 43.6% (average was 27.5%) and 44.3% (average was 28.2%). So if you need power there’s appeal, but be prepared for him to sink you in the average department.

 

Sources – Fangraphs, Minor League Central, Baseball Reference

2 comments

  1. TreeFrog says:

    Thanks for the good stuff as usual. Did notice one thing though. McHugh = Houston

  2. the daddyo says:

    i think you’ll be talking about David Peralta soon.
    just pick up the converted pitcher to outfielder.

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