Waiver Worthy: Which Hot Adds Are Worth Grabbing (Marcus Stroman, Kendrys Morales & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Let’s take a quick look at the five most added players (according to CBS Sports as of Tuesday) to try and determine if they are worth adding or if fantasy owners should pass:

 

Josh Willingham – Minnesota Twins – Outfielder
Add Percentage – 31%

He has been hot since returning from the DL, going 15-49 with 4 HR, 14 RBI and 10 R. Power has never been a question for Willingham, but his average has been.

Currently sitting at .303, he’s just a .256 career hitter. It’s a short sample size, but his current 55.1% fly ball rate (well above his career norm) could indicate that he’s trying to hit for power. Solid line drive rate or not (22.4%), that type of mark is going to make maintaining a .356 BABIP impossible (as it is he owns a .295 career mark). Throw in a 21.6% strikeout rate and things are going to fall quickly.

Use him while he’s hot or if you need power, but be ready to cut bait as he ultimately could be a drain on your average.

I’d consider Willingham over Dayan Viciedo, B.J. Upton

 

Marcus Stroman – Toronto Blue Jays – Starting Pitcher
Add Percentage – 28%

We all know that young pitchers can be risky propositions, but when you hit on one the rewards could be immense. It’s too early to tell which side of the fence Stroman will land on, but after struggling in the bullpen the results as a starter have been impressive.

In 12.0 innings as a starter he owns 13 K vs. 2 BB while also generating a 61.8% groundball rate. He had a 51.1% groundball rate while at Triple-A, so it may not be a complete aberration, and owns a career minor league 10.64 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9. In other words, he could be nasty.

Sure there has been speculation that, given his size, the bullpen may be his ultimate role but right now that doesn’t appear to be the case. With a potent offense behind him, Stroman has the chance to also offer W and be a great boost to any fantasy rotation.

I’d consider Stroman over A.J. Burnett, Ubaldo Jimenez

 

Kendrys Morales – Minnesota Twins – First Baseman
Add Percentage – 23%

We all knew Morales was going to be a hot add around draft time, since the draft compensation disappeared, so if you were interested in him you probably grabbed him a few weeks earlier. However, that addition may prove fruitless as he certainly didn’t land in the ideal spot.

A low-to-mid 20s HR hitter over a full season, we are probably looking at 12-15 HR max (and that may be pushing it). Instead, a career .280 hitter with no speed may be providing doubles and driving in some runs, but it’s hardly enough to excite us.

I’d consider Morales over Lucas Duda, James Loney

 

Danny Santana – Minnesota Twins – Shortstop/Outfielder
Add Percentage – 20%

Santana is a very interesting study, as he is proving he can provide some speed at the top of the Twins lineup. In 23 games he’s hitting .364 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R and 4 SB. However, there’s a lot of deception in the numbers.

His average has come courtesy of a .473 BABIP and 24.4% strikeout rate. Considering the latter was at 26.7% in 97 AB prior to his recall there’s reason to believe in it. We also know that there’s no chance he maintains his current BABIP, speed or not, so the average is likely going to plummet.

He did steal 30 bases a year ago, so there’s that, but he also has very little power. He screams of a player to ride while he is hot, but be prepared to cut bait when the bottom inevitably drops out.

I’d consider Santana over Jackie Bradley Jr., Ichiro Suzuki

 

Brock Holt – Boston Red Sox – Third Baseman
Add Percentage – 19%

There were questions if he was going to maintain regular playing time with Stephen Drew back in the mix. That’s still a question, though Drew was out on Monday with an oblique injury.

Even if he plays, how much upside does Holt really have? His .339 average has come courtesy of a .411 BABIP and he has little power and little speed. Sure, if he hits atop the lineup he could score runs, but the playing time issue is too great.

Don’t bother, as there should be players with more upside available to you.

 

Sources – Fangraphs, CBS Sports, Minor League Central

6 comments

  1. NM says:

    What you think about Dickerson and Henderson Alvarez?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Dickerson – Hard to imagine him maintaining his current BABIP (.392) and HR/FB (28.6%). I’d say the bubble is going to burst…

      Alvarez – We’d like to see a few more Ks, but gotta like the control and groundballs. As a backend option, he’s worth it.

      • Peter says:

        What do you mean by bubble bursting? Dickerson’s career BABIP across 113 games is .335 and he had BABIPs well above .300 throughout his career in the minors. His career slash line of .289/.356/.518 just looks very promising given that it’s similar to the statlines that he posted in the minors.

        Agree that he won’t continue to post an OPS above 1.000 but can’t see him not being valuable if he gets continued playing time.

  2. Bryan Shisler says:

    Is it time to sell J Weaver? The A’s are tough so I don’t want to be hasty but his fastball isn’t what it use to be.

  3. Mike says:

    I just wanted to comment that I really like the addition of “I’d consider” to each analysis. It’s puts the comments into perspective and is a nice touch. Thanks!

  4. Rotoprofessor says:

    Peter – I don’t believe in the power and there’s a big difference between a .390 BABIP and a .335 BABIP. I’m not saying that there isn’t promise, but a regression is likely.

    Bryan Shisler – I’ve never been the biggest fan of Weaver, so I’m definitely not against moving him. It all depends on the return, but kick the tires (that opinion has nothing to do with the poor outing against the A’s)

    Mike – Thanks! I’m glad you like it and I truly appreciate the support!!

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