Waiver Worthy: Which Hot Adds Are Worth Grabbing: Danny Santana, Jake Arrieta & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Let’s take a quick look at the most added players (according to CBS Sports as of Tuesday, with all stats through Monday) to try and determine if they are worth adding or if fantasy owners should pass:

 

Danny Santana – Minnesota Twins – Shortstop/Outfielder
Add Percentage – 28%

Santana has been a great find, thus far, as he is hitting .340 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 12 R and 5 SB in 103 AB.  He has been making good contact, with a 29.7% line drive rate, but does anyone really believe his current .423 BABIP?  Since 2011 he owns an 18.0% strikeout rate and 13.8% line drive rate in the minors, leading to a .279 average.

Yes, he has some speed (30 SB at Double-A in ’13), but he has little power and the average is nearly destined to implode.  He’s the type of free agent that you ride while he’s hot, but are prepared to move on from when the time comes.  To help put it in context, I still prefer the upside of Jonathan Villar over Santana.

I’d consider Santana over Stephen Drew, Brandon Crawford

 

Eugenio Suarez – Detroit Tigers – Shortstop
Add Percentage – 24%

With the Tigers having a gaping hole at shortstop, the team finally recalled Suarez and he has thrived since (.346, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 9 R in 26 AB).  It’s an incredibly small sample size, but the major note is his current 57.1% fly ball rate.  He’s not a home run hitter, with just 10 HR last season, so you hope that a few HR early in his career hasn’t caused him to become infatuated with the long ball.

If it has, a major slump could be looming. In general he does offer a little pop with a little speed, and is worth using in deeper formats. Just keep a close eye on his fly ball rate to see how things develop

I’d consider Suarez over Danny Santana (and the same SS I’d take him over)

 

 

Wei-Yin Chen – Baltimore Orioles – Starting Pitcher
Add Percentage – 22%

I think one of the main reasons there was a run on Chen this week was the expectation of him getting two starts. However, with Miguel Gonzalez returning from the DL and Kevin Gausman getting another start owners may have to wait a week before enjoying that luxury.

As for his performance, the lefty is showing the same skills he always has overall, though those aren’t necessarily impressive (career 3.99 ERA). In other words, he’s not a player to get overly excited about.

I’d consider Chen over Jared Cosart, Edinson Volquez

 

Andrew Heaney – Miami Marlins – Starting Pitcher
Add Percentage – 22%

We are going to take a much closer look at Heaney later today, but it shouldn’t be surprising to see his ownership sky rocket given his promotion. In 76.2 IP between Double and Triple-A this season he owns a 2.47 ERA, 79 K and 15 BB. While he’s not an elite groundball pitcher, he certainly will benefit from his new home ballpark.

As we have said before, all young pitchers do carry an inherent risk. While he’s well worth owning, you also shouldn’t move mountains to necessarily acquire him.

I’d consider Heaney over Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Leake (or any other mediocre veteran at the end of my bench)

 

Tommy Milone – Oakland A’s – Starting Pitcher
Add Percentage – 18%

Milone has been pitching well overall, with a 3.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but he’s been specifically dominant at home:

  • Home – 1.93 ERA
  • Road – 4.73 ERA

Consider him a streaming option in the same class as a Wei-Yin Chen.

I’d consider Milone over Jared Cosart, Edinson Volquez

 

Jake Arrieta – Chicago Cubs – Starting Pitcher
Add Percentage – 18%

A long hyped prospect, Arrieta appears to be figuring things out with a 2.09 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.  He’s striking people out, with a 9.21 K/9 (9.0 SwStr%), and also demonstrating control, with a 2.93 BB/9.  The key is going to be if he can maintain his newfound groundball stuff, currently at 52.1%.  If he can keep that going, he could prove to be a viable option all year long.

That’s not to say that there isn’t regression risk, considering an 81.8% strand rate, but the good outweighs the bad.

I’d consider Arrieta over Bronson Arroyo (similar veterans without upside)

Sources – CBS Sports, Fangraphs, Minor League Central

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10 comments

  1. Bryan Shisler says:

    Was Heaney the best minor SP available to be called up? Walker comparison? Also like to hear your thoughts on a mid-level guy W. Peralta who showed up on our WW when his owner ran out of bench space. Worth the add?
    B

  2. Josh says:

    Where would you put the struggling Everth Cabrera in comparison to guys like Santana and Suarez?

  3. TreeFrog says:

    Thoughts on Jeff Locke?

  4. Rotoprofessor says:

    Bryan Shisler – In regards to Heaney, he and Walker are close. Personally it wouldn’t shock me if Jimmy Nelson outperformed either (or both) in 2014 alone, but they all bring risk. I’d lean Heaney over Walker at this point, though, given the fact that he pitches in the NL East.

    As for Peralta, I am a fan and think he’s worth owning in all formats.

    Josh – I’d still go with Cabrera and his upside, which is still greater than the other two.

    TreeFrog – It depends on the format. There’s strikeout potential and he has had some bad luck (56.8% strand rate). I don’t believe his walk rate, but in deeper formats he should hold value.

    • Adam says:

      In a 16-team H2H league, would you consider dropping Drew Pomeranz for Jeff Locke?

      • Rotoprofessor says:

        It depends on need. With Pomeranz on the DL I could see making the move, but Locke could quickly regress (thanks to his BB/9).

  5. Mike Fugasi says:

    I know Santana is not a long term fix but he plays everyday and is in the lead off spot. Because of that I like him over Villar.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      That’s fair. But Villar does play most days and offers more speed/power potential. Could Santana outproduce him in the short-term? Absolutely, but Villar should be the more valuable fantasy asset.

      • Mike Fugazi says:

        Love this website and have made many moves because of checking it daily. Thank you!

        • Rotoprofessor says:

          and we thank you for your support! It is very much appreciated and we couldn’t do what we do without our readers!

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