Has The Time Finally Come To Move On From Jean Segura or Chris Davis?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know the names that have disappointed this season and, at this point (in redraft formats), the time may have finally come to completely cut bait.  Has it really come to that?  Let’s take a look:

 

Jean Segura – Milwaukee Brewers – Shortstop
Should we really be surprised that Segura has struggled the way he has? We have to remember he hit .241 with 1 HR and 17 SB over 216 PA in the second half of 2013. While it would be easy to point to fatigue, we have to have second thoughts about that now.

We all knew the power from the first half of 2013 wasn’t for real (11 HR), and his 4 HR this season is much more realistic. The real question focuses on his average and his speed, and they almost go hand in hand.

While Segura does make good contact (12.9% strikeout rate in the Majors), the line drive rate continues to be lackluster:

  • 2013 – 18.0%
  • 2014 – 18.8%

We can still argue bad luck, given his speed (.263 BABIP), but with a .285 BABIP in the second half of 2013 you have to start to wonder what’s real and what’s bad luck. Obviously we’d love to say that the average is going to spike, but right now that’s impossible to say.

Obviously, with a lower batting average he has had fewer opportunities to steal bases (as well as ultimately hitting lower in the order). It all comes down to a player who has minimal upside for the remainder of 2014.

There have been some personal issues that likely impacted his performance, so there’s a good chance he rebounds for 2015. However with the possibility to ride the bench on any given day and little upside to speak of, he’s simply not a player to slot into your lineup if you have alternatives.  In fact, if you need the roster spot I wouldn’t be afraid to cut bait completely.

 

Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles – First Baseman
Maybe we should list him as a third baseman as well, since he’s been seeing time there due to the injury to Manny Machado. Regardless, we knew a regression was coming for Davis though this has likely been greater than anticipated.

After showing an improved strikeout rate last season, at least slightly, he’s spiked back up to 34.0% and has been worse in the second half (38.8%). That’s going to be the biggest issue, as overall it’s not that he’s been swinging for the fences. Just look at his fly ball rates over the last three seasons:

  • 2012 – 37.5%
  • 2013 – 45.7%
  • 2014 – 41.1%

He’s also not a pop up machine, at 5.0% this season. Throw in a 24.4% line drive rate and it’s obvious that his .237 BABIP is some extremely bad luck. That’s not to say that he’s going to hit for a good average, but he’s better than his .190 average this season.

He also has the advantage of power, and he’s showing it now with 6 HR in August. The potential to go off for a 10 HR September is very real, and when coupled with the luck he could ultimately carry you down the stretch.

Don’t give up hope at this point.

Source – Fangraphs

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3 comments

  1. J says:

    Bro, the time to let Chris Davis go was long ago. He’s pathetic! Dropped him and picked up Chris Carter just after the all-star break.

    • Tabes says:

      Bro, Carter could fall off a cliff at any moment and Davis could go on a similar power surge as Carter had in August, in September. That was the point of the article I think. It’s baseball, they’re power guys, it’s feast or famine and it’s day to day. He has the potential, his numbers are slightly ticking up, I’m holding out hope. I have both Carter and Davis on the roster and I needed a 3B after Zimmerman went down and Pedro Alvarez busted, I’ve stuck with him all year and I’m rolling with him till the bitter end!

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Tabes said it well. Power tends to come in spurts for some players and Davis has had bad luck and still has the power potential. There’s reason to believe that he could finish the season extremely strong.

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