2015 Fantasy Rankings: Top Outfielders #21-40

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We kicked off our rankings of the top outfielders earlier in the week (click here to view #1-20), so let’s continue our look at the best options in the league.  The next set of 20 definitely has some interesting breakout youngsters, a group of veterans who could break out and a few under-the-radar options who shouldn’t be overlooked.  Who’s included?  Let’s take a look:

21. Starling Marte – Pittsburgh Pirates
22. Alex Gordon – Kansas City Royals
23. Matt Kemp – San Diego Padres
24. Yoenis Cespedes – Detroit Tigers
25. Shin-Soo Choo – Texas Rangers
26. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox
27. Marcell Ozuna – Miami Marlins
28. Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies
29. Mark Trumbo – Arizona Diamondbacks
30. Leonys Martin – Texas Rangers
31. Rusney Castillo – Boston Red Sox
32. A.J. Pollock – Arizona Diamondbacks
33. Brett Gardner – New York Yankees
34. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds
35. Khris Davis – Milwaukee Brewers
36. Josh Harrison – Pittsburgh Pirates
37. Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
38. Carlos Beltran – New York Yankees
39. Gregory Polanco – Pittsburgh Pirates
40. Oswaldo Arcia – Minnesota Twins

Thoughts:

  • It was a tremendous “renaissance” for Kemp, but does anyone truly believe in his 26.2% HR/FB in the second half (especially with the move to San Diego)?  Throw in the seeming loss of speed (9 SB or fewer in each of the past three seasons, including 8 SB in 599 PA in ’14) and he’s hard to get behind.  Given the potential cost, the risk likely outweighs the reward.
  • Not a believer in Marcell Ozuna?  The power is very much for real, considering he hit 11 of his 23 HR on the road last season and posted an average distance on non-groundballs of 278.541.  He needs to reduce his groundballs and get the strikeouts back in control (26.8% in ’14, 19.6% in ’13), but the potential is there for a 30+ HR campaign.  We’ll take a much closer look at him in the near future.
  • Is there a team with a more promising young outfield duo then the Red Sox’ Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo?  While they could be 1-2 in the order, or maybe 1-9, they are going to form a dynamic duo that opponents have to deal with.
  • Was the breakout of Josh Harrison for real?  Should we expect a significant regression in 2015?  Take a look at our thoughts of him by clicking here, but the ranking alone should tell you that we believe.
  • Gregory Polanco hit .235 in the Majors, though it came with 7 HR and 14 SB over 277 AB.  It wasn’t strikeouts that were the issue, with an 18.9% mark, but a .272 BABIP (and 11.6% popup rate) despite a 19.1% line drive rate and significant speed.  Don’t write him off, there should be a strong season in there.
  • A.J. Pollock was a well hyped player heading into 2014, but injuries helped him fail to live up to that billing.  Is he going to get there in 2015?  Check out our thoughts by clicking here.

Make sure to check out all of our early 2015 rankings:

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10 comments

  1. gus says:

    No Jason Hayward in the top 40- ouch

  2. Mike says:

    I am surprised Soler didn’t make the list. If healthy he will put up amazing numbers with Rizzo in front of him and if Baez or Bryant hit a little from behind.

  3. Bbboston says:

    Rotoprofessor,,

    Springer and Betts: what makes them different than moustakis, ackley, Hosmer, et al?

  4. Rotoprofessor says:

    gus – I am probably the person who is the least supportive of Heyward to be honest. He was terrible against LHP last season and has struggled to hit for power in general. You can see some more of my thoughts on Heyward at http://www.rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=25151

    Mike – Soler literally just missed. My concern is his ability to hit for a strong average, but the power is definitely going to be there.

    Bbboston – They’ve actually had a bit of success and also have the underlying numbers that indicate success. Hosmer, Ackley etc. have always had concerns in the metrics

    • Marky Mark says:

      So you have more confidence in other sources of power like Khris Davis (.251 AVG in 637 AB’s) and Oswaldo Arcia (.241 AVG in 723 AB’s) and their abilities to hit for a strong average? Or Mark Trumbo’s .247 AVG? Or even Jay Bruce and his career .251 AVG?

      Or is that you think those are strong averages and you expect much worse from Soler?

      • Rotoprofessor says:

        I think they are all in the same tier, so it becomes more of a preference between them. They all have average concerns, and all are likely to be in the .240-.260 range.

        I certainly couldn’t argue if someone prefers Soler to the others you named. There’s a ton of upside there and I think he deserves an indepth look at this point!

        • Men-in-Cleats says:

          I’d say that the major difference between Soler and Davis, Arcia, Trumbo, or Bruce is that they’ve performed in a lot more than 24 games so you have a little better idea of what you are getting. They’ve faced major league pitchers for over a season and shown they can handle it.

  5. Logan says:

    You list Kole Calhoun at #20 and don’t even have Christian Yelich in the top 40. Scratching my head at that.

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