Stat of the Day: Does David Wright’s Contact Indicate A Rebound Is On The Horizon?

by Ray Kuhn

Did you Know:
Not all of David Wright’s metrics promote pessimism for 2015. Despite his struggles, Wright’s Hard Contact Ratio of 116 in 2014 was right in line with his average of the past five seasons; 118.

Thoughts:
There is no disputing that Wright had a down year in 2014, and a shoulder injury is a large reason why. At age 32 it would be fool hardy to expect a full return to form, but at the right price there could still be value.

For one thing, as noted above, Wright is still making hard contact. It is also safe to assume that his 5% HR/FB rate is an outlier, that at the very least will double in 2015. Despite the quality of contact that he was making, his Power Index fell greatly from 130 in 2013 to 84 last season.

Looking at those two stats, it isn’t hard to explain the fact that Wright hit only eight home runs last season. His Expected Power Index doesn’t tell as bleak of a story; it was 114 last season. Now that is still below his past levels, but it shows that we can expect some level of improvement in 2015.

If Wright stays healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him flirt with 20 home runs and 90 RBI, but I’m also not paying for more than a 20/80 season out of the third baseman.

Source: Baseball HQ

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