Stat of the Day: Was Prince Fielder’s Power Already On The Decline?

by Ray Kuhn

Did You Know:
Prince Fielder’s production was already on a downward slope prior last season’s disappointment. Let’s take a look at his power metrics from 2011 through 2013.

  • 2011: 170 Power Index; 145 Expected Power; 22% HR/FB; 140 Hard Contact
  • 2012: 126 PX; 128 xPX; 18% HR/FB; 132 HctX
  • 2013: 119 PX; 126 xPX; 14% HR/FB; 116 HctX

Thoughts:
Looking at the above metrics, it should not come as a surprise to anyone that Fielder’s home run totals fell in those seasons from 38 to 30 to 25.  Yes, it is easy to chalk up Fielder’s brutal showing (.247, 3 HR, 19 RBI in 150 at bats) to his neck injury that led to season ending surgery, but it appears there is more to the story. The easy response here is to bank on a bounce back from Fielder, and while that is not entirely wrong it is also misguided.

Fielder has more left than what he showed last season, and it is also hard to know how much the neck injury led to his struggles.However there are not many good things we can say about an 83 PX and an xPX of 68.

The first baseman is worth a look as a buy low candidate, but other than batting average how much really separates Fielder (NFBC ADP 65.6) from Brandon Belt (179.8) or Adam LaRoche (147.3)?

To me, the answer is not much.

Source: Baseball HQ

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