Stat of the Day: Why Lance Lynn Could Regress In 2015

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Did You Know:
Lance Lynn utilized his fastball last season the seventh most of any qualified pitcher over the past five years:

1. Bartolo Colon (2013) – 85.5%
2. Justin Masterson (2011) – 84.4%
3. Bartolo Colon (2011) – 82.9%
4. Bartolo Colon (2014) – 82.6%
5. Justin Masterson (2012) – 80.7%
6. Ross Detwiler (2012) – 80.3%
7. Lance Lynn (2014) – 79.0%
8. Justin Masterson (2010) – 78.1%

Lynn also owned the 11th highest utilization in a season, with a 73.2% mark in 2013.

Obviously using your fastball to this extent doesn’t necessarily mean that you can’t produce. Of course it’s also interesting to note that only four different pitchers make up the top eight.

One is Bartolo Colon, who we all know is a one-trick pony (especially at his age)…

One is Justin Masterson, who utilizes his fastball/sinker to generate a significant number of groundballs…

Then there’s Lynn… He doesn’t use his fastball to generate groundballs (43.1% and 44.3% over the past two seasons). Also, while he has posted strikeout rates of 8+, he also saw his SwStr% drop to 8.4% in 2014. Could opponents be getting accustomed to his repertoire?

It’s certainly possible and seeing him struggle to generate strikeouts in 2015 wouldn’t be shocking. Given that risk, he’s not a pitcher I’d go out of my way to target because a drop in strikeouts would take all of his other numbers with it.

Source – Fangraphs

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