by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
There had long been rumors of the Milwaukee Brewers trading Jean Segura, but it actually came to fruition yesterday as he got shipped to Arizona in a five player trade:
- Arizona Acquires – SS Jean Segura and P Tyler Wagner
- Milwaukee Acquires – P Chase Anderson, 2B/3B Aaron Hill and SS Isan Diaz (who we profiled on the Prospects site, wondering if he could develop into an Anthony Rendon type player, which you can read by clicking here)
From Arizona’s perspective is there really any fallout? Anderson and Hill were both “extra” pieces and while they would’ve seen time their absence doesn’t have an impact on the other players (the biggest gain could be for Brandon Drury, who has one less obstacle at 3B). As for Segura is there any change in his value? He’s still not likely to hit towards the top of the lineup and he’ll still call a favorable ballpark home. The only difference is that he has a defensive shortstop behind him in Nick Ahmed, which could lead to him being pulled late in games, and that’s assuming he wins a starting job (which isn’t a guarantee).
The bigger impact is in Milwaukee, where Anderson should slide into the rotation, Hill should get an opportunity to win the third base job and Jonathan Villar is going to get a shot at shortstop until Orlando Arcia is deemed ready. Let’s take a look at each of them:
He was going to be in the mix at 3B, and still will once Arcia arrives if he’s playing well, but he now should be a guaranteed starter on Opening Day. Not a source of power, Villar brings speed to the table and could factor towards the top of the lineup if he can improve on his strikeout rate. Albeit in limited AB, he’s at least been trending in the right direction in the Majors:
- 2013 (210 AB) – 29.5%
- 2014 (263 AB) – 27.7%
- 2015 (116 AB) – 22.7%
Of course he posted a 10.2% SwStr% last season, hardly an impressive mark, though he actually improved his Whiff% across the board with a 10.94% on Hard pitches (11.82 in ’14), 5.95% on Breaking balls (13.66% in ’14) and 19.78% on Offpseed pitches (29.59% in ’14). If he can at least maintain those marks, there will be hope that he can hit for a usable average (.260+).
He was always going to be up in 2016, the question is if this trade accelerates his timetable. He spent all of ’15 at Double-A hitting .307 with 8 HR and 25 SB over 552 PA. Here’s what we said about him in our Brewers’ Top 10 Prospect List:
He spent last season at Double-A and performed well, hitting .307 with 8 HR and 25 SB. That’s a significant step forward for a player who at one point looked primed to simply depend on his glove.
He’s not going to be a big-time source of power, though his 37 doubles, 7 triples and 8 HR as a 21-year old shows us that 10 HR at the next level is not out of the question. He’s also continued to show some speed, with 20+ SB for three straight seasons. While we’d like to see him draw a few more walks (5.4% in ’15), he does make good contact (13.2% strikeout rate) and could be a top of the order bat.
While he doesn’t appear to have one standout skill, he could easily produce across the board. As a shortstop, that brings great appeal.
As to when he arrives, we’d expect him to be there by the All-Star Break at the latest. Chances are June 1, once the Super 2 deadline has come and gone, is a good bet however (unless he gets off to a terrible start at Triple-A). In other words, make sure he’s on your target list on Draft Day as he can make an instant impact before long.
The change of scenery isn’t much help for Anderson, who owns a 4.18 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 267.0 IP in the Majors. The problem is two-fold:
- An elevated home run rate (12.1% HR/FB)
- An elevated line drive rate (23.9%)
Neither of those things are promising, especially moving to Milwaukee, and he also saw a drop in his strikeout rate last season:
- 2014 – 8.27 K/9
- 2015 – 6.54 K/9
Anderson owned a 9.0 K/9 in the minors, so there is hope, and he also has solid control (2.36 BB/9 in ’15). He’s going to be more of a streaming option, thanks to the risk involved, but he is back on the map.
In his wake is Zach Davies, who will likely be the odd man out of the rotation to open the season. For now take him off draft lists.
Is anyone really hopeful that he returns to usability? Just look at the numbers over the past two seasons:
- 2014 – .244, 10 HR, 4 SB over 541 PA
- 2015 – .230, 6 HR, 7 SB over 353 PA
The bigger impact is that he should see some time at 3B, with Villar ultimately shifting over, limiting the opportunities for Will Middlebrooks. Then again, was anyone expecting big things from Middlebrooks anyways?
Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Reference
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Make sure to check out all of our 2016 rankings: