by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s no secret that the value of Joey Votto rises when you switch from AVG to OBP. That’s what happens when you post a 20.6% walk rate in ’15 (17.3% or better in each of the past four seasons). Who else sees their value rise, though? Who loses value thanks to the change? Let’s take a look:

1) Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks
2) Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
3) Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs
4) Edwin Encarnacion – Toronto Blue Jays
5) Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds
6) Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox
7) Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles
8) Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves
9) Eric Hosmer – Kansas City Royals
10) Prince Fielder – Texas Rangers
11) Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians
12) Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
13) Byung-ho Park – Minnesota Twins
14) Lucas Duda – New York Mets
15) Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers

Thoughts:

• Jose Abreu saw his walk rate fall last season (from 8.2% to 5.8%), and while the split does indicate a little more upside (halves of 4.4% and 7.4%), it’s still not enough to keep him towards the top of the rankings. That’s because the walk rates of both Anthony Rizzo (11.0% or better for three straight seasons) and Edwin Encarnacion (11.4% or better for four straight seasons) remove any advantage Abreu had given his average. With similar HR/RBI/R projections, in OBP formats both leap frog him.
• We all know that Carlos Santana, despite always viewed as a high upside average hitter, hasn’t delivered. He’s a career .245 hitter, but owns a career .365 OBP thanks to a 15.7% walk rate (never below 14.5%). That certainly helps boost him up the rankings, thanks to consistent 20+ HR power, making him a low-end starting option.
• Is Lucas Duda the biggest 1B sleeper? For an in-depth look at his upside click here, but things look even better in OBP formats. He’s posted four straight seasons with walk rates of at least 11.1% (11.9% in ’15) and also brings the potential to hit 30+ HR.
• If you are looking for a pure OBP option target Joe Mauer, though his lack of power keeps him far removed from these rankings.
• Adrian Gonzalez is a “safe” option, but he also has posted single-digit walk rates for four straight seasons (helping lead to OBP of .350 or worse each year). With players like Duda and Byung-ho Park bringing more power potential, with similar OBP upside, they are simply better picks in this type of format.

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