ADP Watch: At His Current ADP, Is Dee Gordon Worth Selecting?

by Ray Kuhn

Speed. Dee Gordon has it. A lot of it in fact as Gordon is rated as the fastest player per Baseball HQ’s skills leader board.

Perhaps even more importantly, Gordon has shown the ability to translate that speed into results on the bases. In 2014 and 2015, the second baseman averaged 61 stolen bases a season while stealing 30 bases last year in 325 at bats. This production is even more valuable as steals become increasingly rare and difficult to come by in fantasy drafts.

Gordon can certainly be a difference maker in the category, but it is just one of ten. If Gordon comes up with another 60 stolen bases this season, you will still need to find roughly another 80 stolen bases to finish third. That is an average of about seven steals from your 11 other position players (excluding the catchers), and shouldn’t be too easy to manage.

That could potentially lead you to the conclusion that I would be in favor of drafting Gordon this season, but in fact the opposite is true. Gordon isn’t a player I’m completely opposed to drafting, but I just have a hard time doing it at his current ADP of 44.54 with a pick range of 27 to 64. Quite simply, that is just too expensive of a price to pay for a one dimensional player.

Gordon doesn’t bring any power to the table, so that eliminates two of the other four categories right off the bat. In the last full season he played, Gordon scored 88 runs which last season would have tied him for 10th among all second baseman.

Over the past three seasons, Gordon’s batting average has been all over the place ranging from .289 in 2014 to .333 in 2015, and then .268 last season. Gordon makes contact at an above average level, about 83% of the time, and hits the majority of his balls on the ground (roughly 60%).

Gordon’s speed helps add to his hit total, but luck does come into play and his 31% hit rate last season helped to keep his batting average down. Expecting Gordon to hit around .285 would be reasonable, but it is not an overwhelming asset.

I have nothing against Gordon for this season, I would just prefer to select him about three rounds later and use that draft choice for a multi-category contributor.

Source – Baseball HQ

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Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings:

Position
Standard League
OBP League
Catcher03/20/1702/28/17
First Base01/16/1703/07/17
Second Base03/22/1703/09/17
Third Base02/06/1703/12/17
Shortstop02/13/1703/15/17
Outfield#1-20 |03/16/17

#21-40 |03/16/17
03/19/17
Starting Pitcher#1-20 |02/27/17

#21-40 |03/02/17
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Relief Pitcher01/02/17--

4 comments

  1. Alex says:

    Agreed about Gordon, but I get the whole earlier ADP thing. Burners are rare, and like you said, speed is a diminishing statistic. Despite a lack of multi-category contribution (one could say he’s a 2 category guy if you add 0.5 average and 0.5 runs together), I think many people are giving him a pass last year given his lengthy absence. Perhaps they’re making an error given that it’s possible that the PEDs were influencing his stats from 2015.

    That said, perhaps people not only have more hope in Gordon but also with the Marlin line up. In 2015 Stanton was out for a significant amount of time (only 279 at bats). Ozuna wasn’t as big of an influence then and Realmuto wasn’t in the league. Depending on the batting lineup, Gordon could have a better cast behind him and conceivably earn more runs. This is all based on hope of team health, personal health and a 2015 return for Gordon, thus possibly justifying the loftier ADP.

  2. James says:

    He might end up fine but after he came back from the suspension, he looked an awful lot like he did before he broke out.

    Some are fine after they get popped for steroids but not all. All I need to do is look at Everth Cabrera for me to really question selecting Gordon at all this season.

    • Ray Kuhn says:

      Cabrera is a cautionary tale, but the fact that Gordon still stole 30 bases last year does help make me feel a little better.

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