by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
There is a trend for leagues to move away from the traditional AVG category, and instead utilizing OBP or OPS. How does that type of change impact our rankings? In many cases it may not be a dramatic change, but there definitely are those who rise and those who fall.
When it comes to second basemen that are actually a few significant changes, whether it’s the rise of Brian Dozier or the drop of Robinson Cano (who barely sticks in the Top 5). Let’s take a look at the impact of the change on our rankings:
1. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros (1)
2. Trea Turner – Washington Nationals (2)
3. Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals (4)
4. Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins (8)
5. Robinson Cano – Seattle Mariners (3)
6. Ian Kinsler – Detroit Tigers (5)
7. Dee Gordon – Miami Marlins (6)
8. Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals (7)
9. Rougned Odor – Texas Rangers (9)
10. Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians (11)
11. Jean Segura – Seattle Mariners (10)
12. D.J. LeMahieu – Colorado Rockies (12)
13. Logan Forsythe – Los Angeles Dodgers (13)
14. Devon Travis – Toronto Blue Jays (14)
15. Ben Zobrist – Chicago Cubs (20)
- We’ve already talked about why Brian Dozier runs the risk of being overdrafted in standard formats (click here to view). However, when you replace AVG with OBP that risk dissipates quickly. While he doesn’t draw walks at an elite level, he’s been over 8% in each of the past four seasons and that helps close the gap with the options who had been ranked ahead of him. It’s not that he’s going to post a better OBP than someone like Robinson Cano or Ian Kinsler, but he’s closer than he is in average. With his power and speed, that’s all he needs.
- Rougned Odor’s power and speed is the only reason he doesn’t plummet with the change, as his 3.0% walk rate from ’16 (helping to a .296 OBP) is a drag on his potential. Then again it wouldn’t be a surprise if he hits closer to .250 (our projection has him at .258), which is why his value isn’t hurt.
- Most people look at Matt Carpenter for his eligibility at multiple positions, but he brings extreme upside with the bat and looks even better when we change to OBP. The owner of a career 12.2% walk rate and .376 OBP, he’s added power to his game the past two seasons (49 HR). Don’t make the mistake of undervaluing him.
- D.J. LeMahieu is coming off an impressive .416 OBP, which you would think would help send him flying up these rankings with the change. He doesn’t offer much power or speed, and his OBP will likely fall given his .388 BABIP. He’s a solid option, but he’s not any better than he would be with AVG as a category.
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Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings:
|Starting Pitcher||#1-20 |02/27/17|