2017 Rankings (OBP): Top 15 Second Basemen: Dozier Returns To Top 5 & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There is a trend for leagues to move away from the traditional AVG category, and instead utilizing OBP or OPS.  How does that type of change impact our rankings?  In many cases it may not be a dramatic change, but there definitely are those who rise and those who fall.

When it comes to second basemen that are actually a few significant changes, whether it’s the rise of Brian Dozier or the drop of Robinson Cano (who barely sticks in the Top 5).  Let’s take a look at the impact of the change on our rankings:

1. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros (1)
2. Trea Turner – Washington Nationals (2)
3. Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals (4)
4. Brian Dozier – Minnesota Twins (8)
5. Robinson Cano – Seattle Mariners (3)
6. Ian Kinsler – Detroit Tigers (5)
7. Dee Gordon – Miami Marlins (6)
8. Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals (7)
9. Rougned Odor – Texas Rangers (9)
10. Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians (11)
11. Jean Segura – Seattle Mariners (10)
12. D.J. LeMahieu – Colorado Rockies (12)
13. Logan Forsythe – Los Angeles Dodgers (13)
14. Devon Travis – Toronto Blue Jays (14)
15. Ben Zobrist – Chicago Cubs (20)
 


 

Thoughts:

  • We’ve already talked about why Brian Dozier runs the risk of being overdrafted in standard formats (click here to view).  However, when you replace AVG with OBP that risk dissipates quickly.  While he doesn’t draw walks at an elite level, he’s been over 8% in each of the past four seasons and that helps close the gap with the options who had been ranked ahead of him.  It’s not that he’s going to post a better OBP than someone like Robinson Cano or Ian Kinsler, but he’s closer than he is in average.  With his power and speed, that’s all he needs.
  • Rougned Odor’s power and speed is the only reason he doesn’t plummet with the change, as his 3.0% walk rate from ’16 (helping to a .296 OBP) is a drag on his potential.  Then again it wouldn’t be a surprise if he hits closer to .250 (our projection has him at .258), which is why his value isn’t hurt.
  • Most people look at Matt Carpenter for his eligibility at multiple positions, but he brings extreme upside with the bat and looks even better when we change to OBP.  The owner of a career 12.2% walk rate and .376 OBP, he’s added power to his game the past two seasons (49 HR).  Don’t make the mistake of undervaluing him.
  • D.J. LeMahieu is coming off an impressive .416 OBP, which you would think would help send him flying up these rankings with the change.  He doesn’t offer much power or speed, and his OBP will likely fall given his .388 BABIP.  He’s a solid option, but he’s not any better than he would be with AVG as a category.

*** Order Rotoprofessor’s 2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for Just $7.00 By Clicking Here!!   Not only will you get all the help you need to dominate your fantasy draft, but you will also be entered to win a Noah Syndergaard autographed baseball, complete with “Thor” inscription! ***

Make sure to check out our other Early 2017 Rankings:

Position
Standard League
OBP League
Catcher01/09/1702/28/17
First Base01/16/1703/07/17
Second Base01/23/1703/09/17
Third Base02/06/1703/12/17
Shortstop02/13/1703/15/17
Outfield#1-20 |03/16/17

#21-40 |03/16/17
03/19/17
Starting Pitcher#1-20 |02/27/17

#21-40 |03/02/17
--
Relief Pitcher01/02/17--

8 comments

  1. Bbboston says:

    Rotoprofessor;

    Love your thoughts on this trade: dyson for ryon Healy. They’re at 9,10.

    Bbboston

  2. Alex says:

    I know you’ve probably written about it earlier (as you guys seemingly tend to do for nearly everyone in the MLB, which is uniquely impressive as far as fantasy baseball sites go), but I have to say your spotting of Odor is quite an eye opener. OBP aside, a lot of Internet types are saying Odor’s 20/20+ hype outweighs anything a Kinsler or Gordon can do. Is it just the OBP that’s keeping him down in the rankings, or is there something else that holds him back? Not saying you’re wrong at all … just curious about your perspective compared to others.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I think the best way to answer my opinion on Odor is to give an excerpt from the Draft Guide:

      “Last season he hit .271, but his plate discipline was horrific (12.0% SwStr%, 41.8% O-Swing%) and he failed to make much “hard” contact (17.6% line drive rate). Overall he posted a 21.4% strikeout rate, with the number rising in the second half (20.1%/22.9%). Opposing starters were adjusting to his aggressive approach, throwing him fastballs 52.83% of the time. Having hit 17 HR against fourseam fastballs (and 7 more on sinkers, cutters and splitters), the fewer fastballs he sees the worse his production could be. Can he adjust and produce? Time will tell, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he struggles.”

  3. Todd Debakis says:

    I’m assuming you just plum forgot about Pedroia?

  4. Dave Jordan says:

    Not even a Red Sox fan, but no livd for Pedroia?

    dj

  5. Rotoprofessor says:

    No, didn’t forget about Pedroia, just expecting a big regression. He longer brings speed, isn’t likely to match last year’s 15 HR and also could see a drop in his AVG (think .290/13/8)

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