The Trade Counsel Returns To Rotoprofessor!!

by Simon Jones

My name is Simon Jones and I’m delighted to be returning to Rotoprofessor this year with the weekly Trade Counsel column.  As background, I’ve been competing in fantasy baseball for a decade across many styles of league. My first love is trading and I wrote for Rotoprofessor for a couple of years on this very topic. I also won the ESPN Grand Theft Roto league in 2009.  On top of this, I’m a Brit.

The column will address a different aspect of trading every week. When I started writing I felt that this was a severely neglected part of the fantasy baseball landscape. If anything the situation has got even worse, and the resources have pretty much dried up.

The fantasy baseball world has changed dramatically in the last few years. Daily Fantasy has been a huge deal. NFBC has money leagues where trading isn’t allowed – I understand the risk of collusion, but to me it’s like calling a game after 4 innings. On top of that, the statistics that we use to make out decisions are changing seemingly every day. When I started playing ERA and OPS were advanced stats – now we have a host of sabermetrics, xStats and who knows where the Statcast era will take us. While 5×5 used to be the norm in 95% of leagues, now I play in more 6×6 than 5×5 leagues and categories like Wins and AVG are often replaced with ‘fairer’ assessments of a player’s skillset.

Fantasy writing has evolved too. I used to get most of my baseball fix from the ESPN and Yahoo. Over time I found other resources with different analysis, and now it appears that ESPN have pretty much thrown in the towel – they’re down to two writers with no draft kit and infrequent updates. Where there are loads of guys doing interesting analysis and player profiles, the whole strategy and psychology of trading seems to be ignored.

So Trade Counsel will look to address that balance, looking at why people trade, what drives their thinking and how to get the best out of that trade to put you in prime position to win that league.

*** Order Rotoprofessor’s 2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for Just $7.00 By Clicking Here!!   Not only will you get all the help you need to dominate your fantasy draft, but you will also be entered to win a Noah Syndergaard autographed baseball, complete with “Thor” inscription! ***

Make sure to check out our 2017 Rankings:

Position
Standard League
OBP League
Catcher03/20/1702/28/17
First Base01/16/1703/07/17
Second Base03/22/1703/09/17
Third Base02/06/1703/12/17
Shortstop02/13/1703/15/17
Outfield#1-20 |03/16/17

#21-40 |03/16/17
03/19/17
Starting Pitcher#1-20 |02/27/17

#21-40 |03/02/17
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Relief Pitcher01/02/17--

16 comments

  1. Joel says:

    I look forward to this. Trading is my favorite part of fantasy sports.

  2. bbboston says:

    Just made a trade today…. Tell me which side did better:

    Traded Kevin Kiermaier for Jeffress (must keep) and V Martinez. While I love V-Mart, getting the forced keeper off my team allows me to keep a better keeper, and feels like v-mart and KK are an even swap….

    • Simon Jones - Trade Counsel says:

      Ha, you’ve done the classic trick of telling me about half of the information I need to be able to judge the trade. I’ll be doing a column in 3 or 4 weeks time that should interest you.

      Hard to comment without knowing you league size, scoring cats or keeper rules. I won’t disagree that dumping Jeffress to free up a keeper spot is likely to be a wise move though.

      • bbboston says:

        American League Only; 11 teams; 5×5 roto; 8 keepers; Auction league; $260; 23 players (2Cs)

        You can keep a 9th keeper if you give up 2 (of 6) free roster moves.

        Consequently, pretty strong price inflation; lack of speed; DH keeper a negative due to shallowness of league; good catchers get a premium

        ON top of all that, I have a awesome set of potential keepers:
        Darvish – 13
        Duffy – 5
        Shoemaker – 4
        Sam Dyson – 1
        Brittonf -11

        Lucroy-23
        Seager-22
        JD Martienez -20
        Keirmaier-13
        Jarrod Dyson-9

        Now that I’ve shared this, which eight would you keep.????

        • Bbboston says:

          Ps: thanks for the thoughts!

        • Simon Jones - Trade Counsel says:

          Hard to picture without having a feel for the salaries and rosters across the league. Some keepers are no brainers. Assuming the $20 salaries are workable, Jarrod Dyson or KK. Depends on just how much of a premium there is on speed. Of course I’d be looking to package 2 together to grab an upgrade!

          • bbboston says:

            On another trade, would you trade Jarrod Dyson for Ryon Healy – see league specs listed above.

            BBBoston

          • Simon Jones - Trade Counsel says:

            Assuming Healy has any kind of palatable salary, yes. There are some concerns that the 2016 numbers will regress, especially when you see the low walk rate and high BABIP, but I think the projections out there are over cautious and he might have sneaky power going forward. I like him plenty more than Dyson.

  3. Bo Shankus says:

    I’ve got a question about general trade theory, but I can’t get too specific since I know at least one other person in my league uses this site.

    It’s a 12 team league. Every team must keep exactly 10 players, but players can be kept forever without any cost or penalty considerations. I have 15 players that are on nearly every top-100 list I’ve seen, and obviously I can’t keep them all.

    Is it better to swing a multi-player trade (or two), where I give up 2 or 3 players to get back one elite-ish guy, and in the process significantly improve a rival’s keeper options and therefore his chances of being serious competition against me….or should I just keep my best 10 and throw the others back in the draft, where they will get spread out among the bottom teams in the draft and less likely to greatly improve any team too much?

    • Simon Jones - Trade Counsel says:

      It’s funny because I make referenced of keeper rule in my next column. I’m not made keen on this, as it inhibits trading, plus makes it very difficult for a guy with below-par keepers to compete – not just for one year, but many years.

      That said, even if you don’t want to improve 2 or 3 of your main rivals, there should be enough teams that could improve you in a trade. Even a marginal upgrade for you will be worth it, plus if you improve one of the lesser teams then you’ll help league parity.

      It’s VERY rare that I wouldn’t at least try to do a trade in that situation.

  4. cisco says:

    Glad I found you. Thinking about trading Jake Arrieta for G. Stanton. Good? Bad?

    • Simon Jones - Trade Counsel says:

      Hi cisco,

      As I said to bbboston, context is everything.

      In a single season 5×5 I’d have them around the same value. If you are asking the question at this point of the season, then I’m guessing you are in some sort of keeper league. Your decision to trade needs to be based around the keeper rules and your roster. Stanton is 4 years younger, so if it is just keep x players per year, then that might give him a slight advantage, but that’s about all I can offer.

  5. munhwi says:

    Hi! Simon! S.gray for J.Peraza? how think about that? h2h 16teams
    I already has Jonathan Villar. but i want more speed star n multi position!
    my team is C – Russell Martin 1B – Chris Davis 2B – Rougned Odor 3B Miguel Sano SS – Trevor Story
    If – Jonathan Villar LF – Matt Holiday CF – Justin Upton RF – Kendrys Morales OF – Jason HeyWard
    Util – Joe Panik Bench – Mitch Haniger and Mitch Moreland

    My rotation is Clayton Kershaw – Zack Greinke – Marcus Stroman – Michael Pineda – Sonny Gray – Jon Gray – Chen wei-Yin

    Thank you!

  6. Simon Jones - Trade Counsel says:

    Hi,

    There is plenty of buzz this offseason about Peraza. I’m a little concerned about some of the underlying stats such as the low walk rate and the alarming number of times he got caught stealing last year.

    I’d make the trade, but I’d always have half an eye on shopping him at some point in the near future. You’ll see a lot in future pieces by me about perceived value compared to real value. For instance Peraza is getting drafted around 120 in NFBC which is at least 3 rounds too early in my opinion, but I then use that valuation to my advantage to flip him for a guy I value more, especially if you find your pitching is too thin.

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