Update Rankings (May 4): Top 15 Third Basemen: Seagers Cracks Top 5, Ramirez Rising & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are about a month into the season so there have obviously been changes to our preseason rankings.  Who has shown signs of improving?  Who has struggled and thus has a cloudier outlook?  Let’s take a look at how things currently stand (Note: The number in parenthesis represents the player’s ranking in our final draft guide update):

1. Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs (3)
2. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies (1)
3. Manny Machado – Baltimore Orioles (4)
4. Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals (5)
5. Kyle Seager – Seattle Mariners (8)
6. Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Indians (13)
7. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals (6)
8. Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers (11)
9. Todd Frazier – Chicago White Sox (7)
10. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays (12)
11. Eugenio Suarez – Cincinnati Reds (15)
12. Alex Bregman – Houston Astros (10)
13. Jake Lamb – Arizona Diamondbacks (NR)
14. Maikel Franco – Philadelphia Phillies (NR)
15. Jonathan Villar – Milwaukee Brewers (9)

Currently on the DL:

  • Josh Donaldson – Toronto Blue Jays (2)
  • Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers (14)

Thoughts:

  • While it feels like Matt Carpenter has been a bit of a disappointment, he’s shown that there’s power in his bat (4 HR). There also is significant upside in his average (.243), as he’s suffered from bad luck (.275 BABIP despite a 27.3% line drive rate) and is showing a terrific command of the strike zone (6.9% SwStr%, 17.8% O-Swing%).  His positional flexibility makes buying low nearly impossible, but he should continue to be viewed as one of the best.
  • Yes it was just one big game, but Anthony Rendon’s breakout performance shows just how quickly a player can flip his season. Look for him to continue to build on the performance, though obviously not at that level, and watch him produce in a deep Washington lineup giving him the potential to pile up the counting stats.
  • Justin Turner isn’t a .387 hitter, but even when his .427 BABIP starts to fall the increased power (2.9% HR/FB) and strike zone command (5.7% SwStr%) will help him maintain a solid average. Throw in the impending power breakout and there’s a lot to like.
  • Jake Lamb has struck out a ton this season (29.2%), and while his 10.5% SwStr% is elevated it doesn’t justify quite that high of a mark. He’s also flashed power (5 HR) and hit the ball hard (23.1% line drive rate).  Remember he was one of the better options in the league in the first half last season before falling off a cliff, so the potential is there.
  • While Maikel Franco has been bad, a 12.5% strikeout rate, 25.9% line drive rate and .195 BABIP all indicate significant upside. Considering he has 4 HR and 21 RBI on the season, there’s a lot to like.

Make sure to check out all of our updated rankings:

Position
Posted
CatcherApril 25
First BaseApril 26
Second BaseMay 1
Third BaseMay 4
ShortstopMay 8
Outfield--
Starting Pitcher--
Relief Pitcher--

21 comments

  1. Carlito says:

    No sano???

  2. Gil says:

    Should I sell high on sano and judge for Bryant in a h2h redraft?

  3. DEAN L WHITE says:

    I like the aggressiveness and real-time feel to your rankings update. That said, I’d have dropped Frazier even further…am I way off there?

    One thing I always wish was included in these rankings is some way of showing how close players are to each other. As an example, Lamb is 13th, but is he essentially on par with the next 3-4 guys? Are there big drop-offs at any place in the rankings? Without the relative data it’s hard to know how to really value guys. Or at least it is to me.
    Thanks for these updates, they’re gold.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Dean, first off thanks for the support and the input! I will see if I can incorporate tiers next time around!

      As for Frazier he’s actually showing improvement in his contact skills (9.8% SwStr%). If he can maintain that, with the power we know he has, there’s a lot of value moving forward.

  4. Gern says:

    Time for Moncada?

    Also, not 3B, but wondering how long to hold on to Bellinger if they send him back down…

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Moncada time is probably close, though they will likely play the Super 2 game.

      As for Bellinger, I don’t believe he’s going to be sent down so don’t think you’ll have this dilemma 🙂

  5. secretaryns says:

    Can anyone talk me off the ledge with K. Seager? I’d love to believe he belongs at number five, but man, he’s just not hitting.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      IT’s a slump, and while it’s a lengthy one he has a track record. Giving up on him now should prove to be a big mistake, especially after taking so much bad.

    • Rodney says:

      He’s a notorious slow starter, as far as I know. I was able to buy low on him last May for the same reason and he paid off big time the rest of the season.

      • secretaryns says:

        Yeah, alright. As soon as I sell low that’s when the home runs start coming. It’s like clockwork

  6. MJP says:

    In a 7×7 h2h +BB, +OPS how would you rank Suarez? still at 11?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Probably in that same realm. I’m a big fan, but he doesn’t have the same upside as some of the others

  7. Alex says:

    I’m surprised that neither Moustakas or Castellanos are mentioned, but maybe that’s because 3B is pretty deep and there’s more hope that Franco, Bregman etc outperform them. They’ve gotta be 16, 17, I imagine.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      You nailed it. They were both in consideration for the bottom few spots, but were just edged out. Next time around that may be different

  8. A.J. says:

    Who would choose for a 3b prospect keeper… Rafael Devers or Nick Senzel?

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