Updated Rankings (June 3): Top 15 First Basemen: Thames Regressing, Smoak’s For Real & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We are two months into the season so there have obviously been changes to our rankings.  Who has shown signs of improving?  Who has struggled and thus has a cloudier outlook?  Let’s take a look at how things currently stand (Note: The number in parenthesis represents the player’s ranking in our previous rankings update):

1. Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
2. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers (NR)
3. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs (2)
4. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds (4)
5. Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals (9)
6. Edwin Encarnacion – Cleveland Indians (7)
7. Wil Myers – San Diego Padres (8)
8. Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals (10)
9. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox (12)
10. Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers (5)
11. Brandon Belt – San Francisco Giants (14)
12. Justin Smoak – Toronto Blue Jays (NR)
13. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians (11)
14. Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles (6)
15. Yonder Alonso – Oakland A’s (NR)

 

Currently Injured

  • Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves (3)

Thoughts:

  • Eric Thames has been among the best stories in the league thus far, though the numbers did turn in May. He’s struggled to hit the ball hard (16.7% line drive rate) and he’s also swung and missed a lot.  Those two things have helped lead to a .221 average for the month, and he’s managed just 3 HR.  Chances are there’s a rebound coming, though the struggles obviously drag him down the rankings a bit.
  • In a fairly big surprise, Matt Carpenter continues to struggle with his batting average (.226). Part of the issue has been too many fly balls (49.1%), though he should still carry a better BABIP (.248) and he’s shown excellent plate discipline (17.8% O-Swing%, 6.8% SwStr%).  Now is not the time to lose hope or send him spiraling down the rankings, as it wouldn’t be surprising to see a big hot streak coming.
  • The big knock against Carlos Santana is the lack of home runs thus far (6), as he’s posted just a 9.4% HR/FB. He owns a career 13.9% mark and has been over 16% in two of the previous three seasons, so there’s room for significant upside.  While he may never hit for a strong average, his plate discipline is a positive (6.1% SwStr%, 21.5% O-Swing%) and his line drive rate (21.6%) is his best mark since 2013.  The upside is there, so stay the course.
  • Justin Smoak may be one of the bigger surprise of the season, with the key being his reduction in his swinging strikes (28.8% in ’17, compared to marks of 11.1% and 12.7% over the previous two seasons). He’s always hit the ball hard and while his 23.1% HR/FB is elevated, he’s only two years removed from a 25.4% mark.  In other words this has the makings of a real breakout and can’t be ignored.

Sources – Fangraphs

Make sure to check out all of our updated rankings:

Position
Posted
CatcherApril 25
First BaseApril 26
Second BaseMay 1
Third BaseMay 4
ShortstopMay 8
Outfield--
Starting Pitcher--
Relief Pitcher--

9 comments

  1. Blue JA says:

    There seem to be a few guys on this list looking up at the big stats being put up by Justin Bour, but he’s nowhere to be found on these rankings…

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I like Bour, just don’t think he can continue the success he’s shown against LHP (and when that falls it’ll take the rest of the numbers with it). That said, he was the last cut and just missed

  2. Gern says:

    Chris Davis. He said my Addison Russell on two teams. How long do I hold out hope before trying to move him for a ham sandwich?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Just talked about Russell recently here. At this point you’d be selling far too law, just gotta keep him stashed and hope for the best

  3. The old professor says:

    Lucas Duda…

  4. Chuck says:

    Why still no love for R. Zimmerman?

  5. Steve says:

    Disappointed in how low Yonder Alonso is. I’d put him at #5.

    His swing overhaul has unlocked the power from his monstrous body and his peripherals are just about completely sustainable. Might hit 35 HR instead of 40, but he’s legit IMO.

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