Sell High Candidates: Three Hitters To Consider Parting Ways With (Dickerson, Bour & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Yesterday we looked at three potential sell high pitchers (click here to view), so today let’s change gears and look at three hitters that we may want to sell.  It doesn’t mean that they can’t maintain their early season production, but there’s a good chance that their value is never higher than it is right now.  That makes for a strong selling opportunity, so let’s take a look:

 

Corey Dickerson – Tampa Bay Rays – Outfielder
2017 Stats – .330, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 56 R, 2 SB

He’s continued to prove that he can hit for power outside of Coors Field, and there’s little reason to think that he won’t keep doing it (19.5% HR/FB).  It’s the average that’s a significant red flag, as he’s benefited from luck (.374 BABIP) and displays a poor approach:

  • SwStr% – 14.0%
  • O-Swing% – 47.1% (highest in the league)

While the strikeout rate isn’t bad, at 20.2%, it’s hard to imagine him keeping it there.  It doesn’t seem to matter what type of pitch he sees, he can’t seem to make consistent contact (Whiff%):

  • Hard – 15.68%
  • Breaking – 14.94%
  • Offspeed – 14.11%

As the strikeouts rise and the luck falls, the overall results will become somewhat ugly (remember he struggled to a .245 average last season).  Now is the time to try and cash in.

 

Justin Bour – Miami Marlins – First Baseman
He’s always had a lot of upside, but the fear was that he would be more of a platoon player.  That hasn’t been the case this season, as he’s actually produced better against LHP:

  • LHP – .340/.421/.740
  • RHP – .274/.346/.524

Of course he’s also benefited from a lot of luck against southpaws (.379 BABIP) and has maintained an unrealistic HR/FB (50.0%).  It’s not to say that he’s going to disappear (though his overall 32.1% HR/FB is not going to be maintained), it’s just that his performance against right-handed pitchers is far more believable (.293 BABIP and 27.3% HR/FB, leading to .274 with 12 HR over 168 AB).  That makes him a viable corner infielder in all formats, but there’s a chance someone in your league will look at the overall numbers and consider him as more than that.

His value may never be higher than it is right now, so kicking the tires and seeing what’s available makes sense.

 

Keon Broxton – Milwaukee Brewers – Outfielder
How much you can get for Broxton is a bit of a question, but he is hitting .250 with 13 HR and 13 SB so there is value.  The problem is that he strikes out far too often (38.1%) and doesn’t walk enough (7.5%).  While his O-Swing% isn’t bad, it’s up dramatically from last season:

  • 2016 – 22.1%
  • 2017 – 27.1%

He also swings and misses far too much (16.7% SwStr%), and it’s possible seeing more breaking balls (up from 24.02% to 31.53%) is the reason why.  He owns an 18.32% Whiff% against those pitches, and also has struggled with his production (BAA/SLG):

  • Slider – .125/.125
  • Curveball – .147/.177

He needs to make an adjustment, but it remains to be seen if he can (and that could ultimately lead to him losing his job all together).

 

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

Make sure to check out all of our updated rankings:

Position
Posted
CatcherJune 1
First BaseJune 3
Second BaseJune 5
Third Base--
Shortstop--
Outfield--
Starting Pitcher--
Relief Pitcher--

2 comments

  1. Big Mike says:

    Are you sure Dickerson’s babip is lucky? I remember when he was in Colorado he had baseball’s highest xbabip at .372.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      He’s had higher marks in the past, that’s true, but still hard to depend on him maintaining that type of mark

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