10 Important Stories From 08/15/17 Box Scores: Is Snell Turning Corner, Giving Up On Peacock & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Both Dominic Smith (1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R) and Amed Rosario (1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R) went deep, showing Mets’ fans the future.  Nolan Arenado returned to the Rockies’ starting lineup, going 1-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R, so fantasy owners can officially breath a sigh of relief.  Danny Salazar continued to shine since his return, allowing 1 ER on 3 H and 0 BB, striking out 10, over 7.0 IP to defeat the Twins.

 

1) Is it time to give up on Brad Peacock…
The offense gave him ample support early, but Peacock couldn’t get through 5.0 innings and qualify for the W.  He lasted just 4.2 IP allowing 4 ER on 7 H and 1 BB, striking out 9, in what obviously is a disappointing performance.  He’s now allowed 4+ ER in two of this past three starts and while he’s shown plenty of strikeout stuff there are ample red flags that the regression will continue.  As it is he entered the day with a 78.3% strand rate, as well as questionable control (4.50 BB/9) and a lack of groundballs (39.8%).  He’s been an extremely solid start, he’s going to be tough to trust down the stretch.

 

2) Could Tyler Skaggs help teams down the stretch…
He was outperformed by Gio Gonzalez (6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 K, W), but that shouldn’t take away from Skaggs’ outing against a still tough Washington offense.  Going 5.0 IP he allowed 2 ER on 7 H and 2 BB, striking out 6, as he made two mistakes to Howie Kendrick (2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R).  He did enter the day having yielded a 23.4% line drive rate over 7 starts, so that is something to watch, but he now has 43 K vs. 16 BB over 44.2 IP and has shown a decent enough groundball rate (42.3% entering the day, 5 groundballs vs. 3 fly balls yesterday).  While he’s hardly a must own, if you need some depth he’s worth the flier.

 

3) Is there a positive takeaway from Blake Snell…
Granted he allowed 4 ER over 6.0 IP, including a home run to Josh Donaldson (2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R), and he only generated 4 K (courtesy of 8 swinging strikes).  It’s hard to be excited over those numbers, but the 1 BB is key as he’s now walked 2 or fewer in five straight outings.  He does need to do a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (since returning June 28 he’s allowed a home run in 6 of his 8 starts), but it’s not like he’s giving up a significant number of fly balls (39.1% entering the day) and he does have ample strikeout potential.  As long as he’s avoiding walks there is going to be some potential value, so if someone in your league gave up on him don’t be afraid to stash him and see.

 

4) The regression of Mike Leake continues…
He got bombed by Boston, which is nothing to be ashamed of, as he allowed 8 ER on 9 H and 2 BB, striking out 2, over 4.1 IP.  His ERA, which was 2.97 on June 30, now sits at 3.88 and it unfortunately may be just the beginning.  He does keep the ball in the ballpark and doesn’t issue walks, but the strikeout stuff is limited (6.12 K/9 entering the day, 5 swinging strikes yesterday) and that is going to almost limit all of his value.  He’ll have some good days, but there will also be days like this.

 

5) Is it time to pay attention to Ryder Jones…
He went 2-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 2 R, and while it’s not much he’s been showing signs of turning things around over the past week.  Since August 7 he’s gone 8-22 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R and 1 SB, though he didn’t draw a single walk.  That has been a consistent problem in the Majors, though he did have a 10.6% walk rate at Triple-A this season and it may just take him some time to adjust (he entered the day with a 13.6% SwStr% and 37.5% O-Swing%).  In 273 PA at Triple-A he had 34 extra base hits (19 doubles, 2 triples and 13 HR) as well as showing a little bit of speed (7-for-7 in SB attempts.  With Brandon Belt sidelined, Jones is going to continue to see AB and could make an impact down the stretch as he heats up.

 

6) Jonathan Villar starts in centerfield…
It’s an intriguing development, as AB in the infield have completely disappeared thanks to the acquisition of Neil Walker and emergence of Travis Shaw.  Villar went 1-4 with 1 SB yesterday, and it’s been an extremely disappointing season (.223 AVG), but there’s still potential for him to get hot and we all know he has the speed to be a difference maker in SB.  It’s not like Keon Broxton (who did deliver a pinch hit HR) has earned playing time, and if Villar proves competent at the position he could return to earning value.  If he’s sitting on your waiver wire it’s a no risk gamble.

 

7) Luis Castillo impresses, but settles for a no decision…
That’s because Kyle Hendriks (6.0 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 4 BB, 6 K) matched him pitch for pitch, but don’t let that make you ignore what Castillo did.  Over 6.0 IP he allowed 0 R on 2 H and 2 BB, striking out 7, against a high powered Cubs offense.  Castillo generated 14 swinging strikes, after entering the day with an 11.8% SwStr%, and he continues to generate groundballs (57.9% entering the day) while also having better control than he’s shown.  There is a regression coming, as he entered the day with an unsustainable 11.3% line drive rate and .255 BABIP, so don’t be surprised to see a few bumps along the way.  That said the upside is there and while he’s tough to trust for the remainder of ’17 he could be a difference maker moving forward.

 

8) It’s a scorching hot streak for Carlos Santana…
He went 3-3 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 3 R, helping to lead the Indians’ 5 HR explosion.  He now has three straight multi-hit games (7-11, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R) and we all know the type of upside that he brings to the table.  While his average may never be there, he is a walk machine and could continue to see a spike in his home run rate (he entered the day with a 12.7% HR/FB, though a 21.4% mark in the second half).  As long as you are not in need of average, Santana is a solid part of any fantasy roster.

 

9) Does Matt Olson deserve our attention…
He’s taken over at 1B, after the trade of Yonder Alonso, and he’s making some noise.  He went 2-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R yesterday and has now homered in four of his past five games.  No one is going to question his power potential, with 31 HR between his time in the Majors and Triple-A, but he’s shown far too much swing and miss to his game thus far in the Majors (16.1% SwStr%).  Unless he gets that on track, and with a 24.2% strikeout rate at Triple-A it’s hardly a given, his value will be capped.  He also isn’t going to continue hitting home runs at this pace, considering his 42.1% HR/FB.  He’s a short-term play while he’s hot, but don’t expect him to be a must use option the rest of the way.

 

10) Another strong start for Dinelson Lamet…
Taking on the Phillies he allowed 2 ER on 3 H and 1 BB, striking out 7, over 7.0 IP.  He’s now allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his past five starts, and while his 4.78 ERA isn’t impressive he also has a 62.5% strand rate and an impressive 10.99 K/9 (courtesy of a 12.7% SwStr%).  The biggest question is going to be keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he did allow another HR yesterday (and owns a 1.43 HR/9) and prior to this season hadn’t shown much groundball stuff in the minors.  Pitching in San Diego obviously will help to deflate those concerns and he’s well worth owning, just don’t consider him a must use based on the matchup and location.

 

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

Make sure to check out our Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects by clicking here!

8 comments

  1. Carlito says:

    Do you feel Castillo is a keeper?

  2. Bennies Express says:

    Corbin or Skaggs ros?

  3. Northern Touch says:

    Professor,

    If you could keep 2 in a keeper

    Who you going with?

    Moncada
    Pollock
    Mazara
    Devers
    Hoskins
    Berrios
    Castillo

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      If I could only pick two, it would be Pollock & Devers. At the same time, try to use Moncada to get an even better option if possible

  4. CJ says:

    Which pitcher would you drop for Betances, Straily or J Montgomery? Really need a good reliever and he is best available

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Probably Straily, though Montgomery could lose his rotation spot again soon depending on Tanaka’s health. Keeper?

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