10 Important Stories From 08/22/17 Box Scores: Time To Give Up On Nola Or Taillon, Giolito Debuts & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Masahiro Tanaka returned from the DL for a solid start, allowing 3 ER on 6 H and 0 BB, striking out 4, over 7.0 IP to defeat the Tigers.  Chris Archer was strong against the Blue Jays, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB, striking out 10, over 6.0 IP and the bullpen was able to hold on and get him the W.  Gary Sanchez continued to rake, going 3-6 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

 

1) More subpar results from Jameson Taillon…
After it appeared like he had righted the ship, Taillon has now struggled in each of his last two starts.  Yesterday it was a tough matchup (against the Dodgers), but he still allowed 5 ER on 5 H and 5 BB, striking out 1, over 5.0 IP (9 ER over his past 10.0 IP).  He was generating groundballs (10 groundballs vs. 3 fly balls), but he barely through 50% of his pitches for strikes (55 of 101) and wasn’t getting enough swings and misses (6).  While he continues to show all the skills on most nights, he now owns an 8.24 ERA in the second half making him tough to trust in the short-term.  Keep him stashed for now.

 

2) Ryon Healy erupts against Baltimore…
He went 2-4 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R, his first HR since August 8 (and still only gives him 4 HR since June 28.  While it’s possible it’s the sign of things to come, his 16.9% HR/FB entering the day is right in line with what he did last season (16.0%) and he’s continued to struggle with his plate discipline (11.6% SwStr%, 34.9% O-Swing%) and to hit the ball consistently hard (17.0% line drive rate).  Obviously he’s better than he’s been over the past 7 weeks, but he’s also not quite as good as he was early in the season.  Look for relatively solid results over the remainder of the season, so hopefully you haven’t given up hope.

 

3) A surprisingly ace-like performance from Doug Fister…
It’s true that Eduardo Nunez (2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R) and the offense gave him ample support, but Fister was spectacular en route to a complete game, one-hit victory over Carlos Carrasco (6.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K) and the Indians.  Fister allowed just 1 ER and 2 BB, while striking out 6, with his lone mistake being a leadoff home run to Francisco Lindor.  He did the job with groundballs (13, compared to 8 fly balls), though he’s hardly a groundball machine (45.5%).  Combine that with an unimpressive SwStr% (7.2%) and general control issues this season (4.27 BB/9) and there simply is little reason for optimism.  It was a good start, but at the end of the day he’s impossible to trust right now.

 

4) Eugenio Suarez continues to produce under-the-radar…
Often overlooked, Suarez continues to produce like a solid 3B option.  After going 3-5 with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 3 R yesterday he’s hitting .270 with 23 HR and 69 RBI on the season.  There’s nothing unrealistic in his 19.3% HR/FB and he continues to show a strong command of the strike zone (9.3% SwStr%, 24.5% O-Swing%).  While the latter isn’t a new skill, it has led to a big jump in his walk rate (13.9%) and there’s little reason to think he can’t maintain these types of numbers over the remainder of the season.  If for whatever reason you’ve continued to overlook him, don’t make that mistake.

 

5) Patrick Corbin continues to roll against the Mets…
He went 8.0 IP allowing 1 ER (a home run to Ahmed Rosario, who finished 2-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R) on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 6, over 8.0 IP.  He had the Mets driving the ball into the ground all night long, with 15 groundballs compared to 3 fly balls, and he’s now allowed 1 ER over his past 23.1 IP (three starts).  The southpaw has been showing all of the skills we look for all season long (8.64 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 50.2% groundball rate), as his biggest problem has been home runs (1.36 HR/9).  He has cut the home runs in the second half (1.24 HR/9), but given his skills and the surprisingly better mark at home (0.69 HR/9, compared to 2.08 on the road) it’s easy to envision further improvement.  That’ll make him a true Top 30 starter moving forward.

 

6) A surprisingly strong start for Lucas Sims…
Taking on a Mariners’ team with the potential to put up big numbers, Sims tossed 6.0 shutout innings allowing 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 4.  It’s not like he was generating many swings and misses (8) or groundballs (6, compared to 8 fly balls).  While he’s pitched well over his past two starts (2 ER over 11.0 IP), he continues to struggle generating many strikeouts (4 K represented a career best) and he runs the risk of giving up a lot of home runs at any time (36.3% groundball rate, after a 34.5% mark at Triple-A).  In other words don’t trust him.

 

7) Is it time to cut bait on Aaron Nola…
The Marlins were slugging all day in the double header, totaling 19 R on 27 H (including 6 HR), but the performance from Nola in the first game is the most troublesome.  While he did last 6.1 IP he allowed 7 ER on 9 H and 2 BB, striking out 7.  It’s his second straight poor performance, allowing 12 ER over 11.1 IP, though even in his struggles it’s easy to see why he has ace-like potential.  While he allowed a pair of home runs yesterday it’s a bit of an aberration considering his 0.90 HR/9 on the season (49.0% groundball rate).  He also has shown strikeouts (9.30 K/9) and control (2.76 BB/9), so the biggest question is if he’s simply tiring as he nears his innings limit.  He threw 111.0 innings last season and has already amassed 141.0 in ’17.  It’s possible he only has another start or two in him, and while it’s hard to imagine in redraft formats it’s safe to move on if absolutely needed.

 

8) Home runs ruin Lucas Giolito’s ’17 debut…
He was outpitched by Kyle Gibson (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K), but Giolito was obviously the bigger story of the game.  He finished allowing 4 ER on 6 H over 6.0 IP, striking out 4, but he was surprisingly burned by 3 HR.  Considering his 10 groundballs vs. 4 fly balls you may want to write if off, but he only owned a 44.4% groundball rate at Triple-A so don’t make that mistake.  He also did not walk a batter yesterday, though his control continues to be a potential issue (4.13 BB/9 at Triple-A).  There’s tremendous upside and he’s worth stashing, but don’t trust him unless he proves he can avoid the walk in multiple appearances.

 

9) Yangervis Solarte leads San Diego’s offensive explosion…
Would anyone have expected the Padres to deliver 12 R in a game?  Solarte did the bulk of the damage, going 3-5 with 1 HR, 6 RBI and 1 R, and he’s now hitting .270 with 14 HR and 53 RBI on the season.  He has carried over what he had done last season, though he’s struggled to hit line drives (15.4%).  At the same time it’s not like he’s been lucky (.270 BABIP), and he’s proven to be able to consistently make contact (7.1% SwStr%).  So while the line drive rate is much lower than we’d want to see, it’s easy to envision the average staying where it is (or potentially improving).  That makes him a solid backend play, hitting in the middle of the lineup, over the remainder of the season.

 

10) Nick Castellanos shows off some power…
While the Tigers got blown out, Castellanos did his part going 2-4 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R.  He continues to struggle with a .248 average, but he has 18 HR and 71 RBI so it’s hard to say that he hasn’t been a productive option.  The power continues to grow (14.2% HR/FB) and it’s easy to envision him improving his average as he does own a 24.7% line drive rate yet just a .296 BABIP (.322 for his career).  He does still need to improve his approach (13.9% SwStr%, 35.1% O-Swing%), but the upside is there to produce a strong finish.  Don’t overlook him for the final few weeks if you need a corner infielder (though there’s a risk he loses some playing time or shifts to the outfield).

 

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

Make sure to check out our Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects by clicking here!

2 comments

  1. Chris says:

    Hi Prof, in order to make room on DL for A Wood, I need to drop either Price or W Contreras… My current catcher is Avila. Who would you drop? League is redraft, and rotisserie scoring.

    Thanks!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *