Why Adam Jones Could Be Destined To Disappoint In 2018

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We can call Adam Jones “Mr. Dependable” if you want, because despite the peripherals he just keeps producing year after year.  The 2017 campaign was no different:

597 At Bats
.285 Batting Average (170 Hits)
26 Home Runs
73 RBI
82 Runs
2 Stolen Bases
.322 On Base Percentage
.466 Slugging Percentage
.312 Batting Average on Balls in Play

There is value in dependability, but that production relative to the makeup of the rest of Major League Baseball is going to hurt his value.  When hitting 25+ HR year after year wasn’t commonplace he brought something to the table, but last season there were 74 players who hit at least 25 HR (in 2014, for comparison, there were 27).  With that no longer being an asset, what exactly does he bring to the table?

Jones hasn’t been a threat to steal bases in some time and he’s been more of an 80/80 player.  That leaves his batting average, which has always appeared to be on the cusp of collapse (and with it will take the other numbers).  He has never brought strong plate discipline to the table, with a career 13.7% SwStr% and 41.5% O-Swing%.

Last season was no different, with a 12.9% SwStr% and 44.1% O-Swing%.  The numbers haven’t led to gaudy strikeout numbers, at least not yet, with an 18.5% career mark.  That’s a slippery slope, though, and at 32-years old sooner or later he runs the risk of his bat slowing down just a little bit.  With an aggressive approach and the potential to be more prone to fastballs, could the strikeout rate continue to rise?

As it is you could argue that he’s already not a “big” producer in any one category, but with pedestrian power and the risk that his average plummets the outlook looks that much worse.  He doesn’t draw walks, so if the average falls the RBI and R will go from usable to disappointing.

Jones has always been a risky selection, and with each passing year the risk grows.  Now is not the time to ante up and invest.

Source – Fangraphs

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Make sure to check out all of our 2018 Projections:

Player
Date Published
Cano, Robinson10/09/17
Castillo, Luis10/03/17
Gerrit Cole10/30/17
Didi Gregorius11/20/17
Wil Myers10/24/17
Quintana, Jose11/13/17
Sanchez, Aaron12/05/17
Schoop, Jonathan11/27/17
Stroman, Marcus10/16/17
Walker, Taijuan 11/06/17

One comment

  1. Biff Malibu says:

    So if trade now for whatever u can get, what’s the expectation? Say replace jones for another OF to keep it simple. Who would likely draw value comparison? For the sake of furthering the conversation.

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