by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
When we look at the potential risk in a hitter’s strikeout rate one of the stats we factor in is his SwStr%. Obviously an elevated mark doesn’t mean that strikeouts are a given, but it makes it more likely. Think about it, the more times you swing and miss the higher the strikeout rate will likely be… It’s simple logic and makes sense, so which hitters carried the highest SwStr% in ’17? Let’s take a look:
1) Joey Gallo – 19.3%
2) Javier Baez – 19.2%
3) Avisail Garcia – 16.3%
4) Corey Dickerson – 15.5%
5) Tim Anderson – 15.2%
6) Tim Beckham – 15.0%
7t) Khris Davis – 14.7%
7t) Carlos Gonzalez – 14.7%
9) Mark Reynolds – 14.4%
10) Chris Davis – 14.3%
- We all know Joey Gallo has power, but how often is he going to tap into it? The SwStr% led to a 36.8% strikeout rate and .209 AVG. Throw in a 54.2% fly ball rate, which helped him to a .250 BABIP, and the potential to hit for a strong average is nil. In fact, with a 30.1% HR/FB (which could regress) even the power is no lock to continue.
- Javier Baez is always a hyped player, and after hitting .273 the hype will only build. However his approach was atrocious (he paired one of the worst SwStr% with a 45.1% O-Swing%) and it’s easy to imagine the strikeouts rising (28.3%) and BABIP falling (.345, despite a 15.4% line drive rate). He does bring power and speed, but if you aren’t making contact you can’t tap into it.
- While Tim Anderson finished with a flourish (.327 with 3 HR and 9 SB in September), his approach actually got worse as he posted a 16.8% SwStr% and 47.2% O-Swing%. He needed a .436 BABIP to put up those strong numbers and we all know that’s not going to continue. As that regresses, considering his inability to draw a walk (0.9% in September) his stolen bases will also disappear (and the average is going to be nearly impossible to maintain as well).
- It seemed like a breakout campaign for Tim Beckham, but as we’ve talked about before he’s a near luck to regress for the coming season. We have already discussed why he’s a potential bust, so make sure to check it out by clicking here.
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|Starting Pitchers||1-20: 02/20/18|