by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
After thriving with the Rays in 2015 (.281 with 17 HR) and 2016 (.264 with 20 HR), there were high hopes for Logan Forsythe with his move to Los Angeles. Unfortunately things fell flat and disappointment may not have been a strong enough word to describe his 2017. Just look at these numbers:
361 At Bats
.224 Batting Average (81 Hits)
6 Home Runs
3 Stolen Bases
.351 On Base Percentage
.327 Slugging Percentage
.299 Batting Average on Balls in Play
On the surface you can argue that nothing went right and there is little reason to believe an improvement is coming, though that may actually not be accurate. In fact if you dig deep there’s hope for a rebound coming.
While the average was terrible, when you look at the underlying numbers you would have to think that he should’ve posted a better mark:
- SwStr% – 6.6%
- O-Swing% – 16.2%
- Line Drive Rate – 23.0%
So he showed elite plate discipline yet struggled with strikeouts (24.8%)… He hit the ball hard yet struggled with poor luck… Do either of those statements really make sense?
It’s easy to envision him returning to the .260+ range, and he could be even better than that given the metrics.
The bigger question could come from his power as his fly ball rate fell to 33.1%. That was skewed by a few poor months, including a 20.7% in April and 22.9% in July. His HR/FB of 7.1% was down, though it’s not hard to envision a slight rebound back to his 9.7% in 2015. The improvement could easily come on the road, where he hit just 2 HR.
The playing time isn’t a guarantee, but if he’s hitting he is going to be the second baseman. Considering the upside in his average alone, as we’ll as the potential to hit 12-15 HR (or more), he’s well worth the risk and a negligible cost (he currently carries an ADP of 427.9 in NFBC formats, meaning he’s generally going undrafted in most formats). It’s hard to imagine that he’s completely lost it, and a rebound is worth gambling on.
Source – Fangraphs
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