Fantasy Fallout: Could There Be Value In The Giants’ Replacement Starting Pitchers?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

First came the news that Jeff Samardzija had suffered a strained pectoral muscle, likely sidelining him for the first month of the season.  Then Friday we got the devastating news that Madison Bumgarner had suffered a broken bone in his left hand, requiring a pin to be inserted into his pinkie and sidelining him for at least two months.

Fantasy owners who had already selected Bumgarner are obviously scrambling, so the question is going to be if they can look at the potential replacements in San Francisco as potential options?  It seems unlikely, but let’s take a look at the candidates:

 

Derek Holland
He hasn’t pitched poorly this spring, including 18 K vs. 5 BB over 15.0 IP.  Of course the 31-year old owns a career 7.18 K/9 and hasn’t posted a mark above 7.00 since 2013 so it’s hard to put much stock into the spring success. 

Holland has struggled with home runs, allowing 4 HR this spring, which has been the story of his career (1.31 HR/9).  While pitching half his games in San Francisco will help, it’s not going to completely solve the issue.

Consistently hit hard (line drive rates of 22.9%, 21.7% and 21.8% over the past three seasons), the other risks will likely leave him valueless.  Perhaps he can be streamed when pitching at home against a weaker offense, but even that may be a stretch.

 

Tyler Beede
He is our fourth ranked Giants’ prospect, earning a “B-“ grade.  We described him by saying:

Beede is generally viewed as the team’s “top” pitching prospect, but seeing his strikeout rate fall to 6.85 K/9 courtesy of a 9.3% SwStr% over 109.0 IP at Triple-A has to cast significant doubt.  He did show more in 2016, with an 11.2% SwStr% over 147.1 IP at Double-A, so that gives hope that he can figure it out.  If you couple that upside with solid control (3.22 BB/9) and groundballs (50.9%), you can see that he could be a solid option (especially pitching half his games in San Francisco).  We’ll have to watch the strikeout rate closely, because if he doesn’t rediscover his ’16 stuff his stock will plummet.”

He hasn’t shown much strikeout stuff this spring, with 5 K over 8.1 IP, which obviously is going to leave further doubt.  There’s enough upside to consider a flier in deeper formats, utilizing him only for his home starts early on, but for most the risk will far outweigh the reward in ’18.

Sources – Fangraphs, MLB.com

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Make sure to check out all of our 2018 Preseason Rankings:

Position
Standard League
OBP League
Catchers03/14/1802/02/18
First Basemen01/08/1802/09/18
Second Basemen01/15/1802/13/18
Shortstops03/21/1802/27/18
Third Basemen03/09/1803/06/18
Outfielders1-20: 03/18/18

21-40: 03/19/18
1-20: 03/12/18

21-40:
Starting Pitchers1-20: 03/24/18

21-40: 03/24/18
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Relief Pitchers02/12/18--

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