Waiver Wire Guidelines: With A Clear Path To Playing Time, Is Jurickson Profar A Must Add?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

First it was Rougned Odor hitting the DL with a strained hamstring, which may cost him three weeks of action.  Now has come the news that Elvis Andrus has fractured his elbow, leaving him sidelined indefinitely.  With the middle of the infield devastated by injuries, that leaves once top prospect Jurickson Profar to step into a regular role (and one he could keep for a long time).

It’s been a slow start for Profar, who is hitting .167 even after going 2-5 with 1 RBI last night.  Considering his injury history and lack of production in the Majors (.227 with 12 HR and 6 SB over 749 PA), it would be easy to simply write him off and assume he’s not going to be able to produce.

It has been a long road, but let’s not forget he’s not far removed from being considered a can’t miss prospect.  Prior to the 2013 season John Sickels of Minor League Ball had described Profar by saying:

Best position prospect in baseball, with outstanding mix of on-base ability, moderate power, speed, excellent defense, superior makeup, and youth.

It’s an incredibly small sample size, but Profar has continued to display that strong approach this season:

  • O-Swing% – 5.9%
  • SwStr% – 17.8%

That’s been the story of his career (6.4% SwStr%, 26.4% O-Swing%).  He also showed off his general upside at Triple-A last season, when he hit .287 with 7 HR and 5 SB over 383 PA.  Those may not seem appealing, but he added 25 doubles.  Still just 25-years old it’s easy to envision him tapping into the power playing in Texas (think 15 HR with regular playing time, with the potential for even a little bit more).

He may not be an elite stolen base option, but would 10 SB hitting near the top of the Texas lineup (he was the #2 hitter yesterday) be a stretch?

It’s easy to be down on Profar, who has gone through numerous starts and stops throughout his career.  The talent is still there, and with the injuries now the opportunity is as well.  Getting regular AB could allow him to once again put things together, leaving a potential .270/15/10 option ripe for the taking (and he looks even more attractive in OBP formats, where he could post an elevated walk rate).

Waiver Wire Guidelines:

  • 10 Team Leagues – Worth Considering
  • 12 Team Leagues – Must Add
  • 14+ Team Leagues – Must Add
  • AL-Only Leagues – Must Add
  • Keeper Leagues – Must Add

Sources – Fangraphs, Minor League Ball

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  

19 comments

  1. Scott says:

    Would you cut Neil walker for profar? Profar is only OF eligible now, but will gain 2b and/or ss soon. This is an obp league. Thanks

  2. Dogs says:

    Would you pick up profar to replace Andrus or would you move Solarte from MI to SS and pick up Panik.

  3. Ken Balderston says:

    I understand holding onto belief in Profar, given the upside. My interest in him has fallen off a bit mostly b/c he hasn’t put up monster numbers in the minors when playing. Looks like he’ll get a real shot now in the bigs… if he starts slow, how long do you give him to produce before moving on?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I’m going to give him 2 weeks I’d guess, but it will depend on how bad he looks. Right now while the AVG is bad, his discipline is still strong and that gives hope. Couple that with the talent and I’m giving him a little bit of rope (especially since the AB aren’t at risk right now)

  4. Sandy Webster says:

    As a guy who plays entirely in 10 team, 2 catcher, AL only leagues, I like the way you present the waiver wire guidelines here. Had already added Profar before I saw this…lol. Obviously. the AL only auction values in the guide were viewed as a positive.
    Thanx and keep up the good work.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Thanks for the support! It is truly appreciate and we are going to be continuing with this format on these articles!

  5. MikeHoncho says:

    Drop Lowrie for Profar when MI eligible?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      From an upside perspective Profar has more, but Lowrie is “safer”. Depending on what’s out there on the wire I’d prefer to play for the upside

  6. Jason says:

    Would you use your #3 waiver to get Profar? I’d have to drop Neil Walker or Maybin

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      It really depends on the wire. #3 is a little bit high to burn, unless it’s a deep league that is already thin and the top prospects are stashed

  7. Tuco says:

    It sounds like Profar’s upside is Andrelton Simmons. If Profar gets SS eligibility how would you rank: Arcia, Profar, Semien, Simmons?

  8. Sawyer says:

    Man, I want to believe. After all of this time, it just seems a little hard to swallow. Not sure how you could rank him above Simmons and Arcia, who at least have a track record of providing fantasy value. What exactly does he have to do the next 2-4 weeks to nail down a job?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      The team has a need in the OF so all he needs to do is hit and they will find AB. Like I said he easily could be .270/15/10 and has more overall upside than the other two (though also significant bust risk)

  9. Barry says:

    Speaking of Texas, I’m concerned about Mazara with the loss of Deshields, Odor, and now Andrus. Hot Reddick is on the wire and gets pleanty of AB’s in a much better lineup. I already have JD, Springer and Pham in my 3 OF league with Marwin and Owings with OF eligibility. I could also grab Lochessi as my SP7 instead. Your thoughts?

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