Expedition Saves: With Roberto Osuna Out Indefinitely, Who Is The Best Bet To Assume Role (And The Answer May Surprise You)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The news regarding Roberto Osuna has sent the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen into turmoil.  Lucky for the team they have numerous alternatives who could step into the now vacated closers role, but who is most likely?  Let’s take a look at the names who will be under consideration for the role:

 

Ryan Tepera – Right-Handed Pitcher
He’s been the primary setup man, leading the team with 7 HLD, and he’s been strong in the role with a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  He’s also been prone to home runs (2.16 HR/9), which hasn’t been the case throughout his career, and hasn’t always shown the best control (2.70 BB/9 in ’18, but was at 3.93 and 3.59 the previous two seasons).  That’s never a good mix, and when you throw in a 97.2% strand rate it appears that even if he does get the opportunity there’s a good bet that he’d ultimately stumble.

 

Seung-Hwan Oh – Right-Handed Pitcher
He has the experience of closing games, with 39 saves between 2016 & 2017, but he also has 8 blown saves over that time.  A lot of his struggles have come due to home runs (1.52 HR/9 in ’17, 1.17 this season), and given the ballpark and a career 34.1% groundball rate that’s something that could consider to plague him.  Throw in a 41.3% Hard% and 98.7% strand rate and would it really be surprising to see him struggle?  Like Tepera he could get a shot, but it’s easy to envision him failing once again.

 

Tyler Clippard – Right-Handed Pitcher
Clippard has experience closing, has long been one of the better setup men in the league.  That said while he owns a 1.47 ERA this season, he’s struggled in two key categories:

  • Control – 4.42 BB/9, after a 4.62 mark in ‘17
  • Home Runs – 1.47 HR/9, which would be his third straight season of 1.40 or higher

That’s not a good mix for the end of a game and will likely keep him from being considered.

 

John Axford – Right-Handed Pitcher
Another veteran with experience, you can easily argue that he has the best makeup for the role today:

  • Strikeouts – 8.27 K/9
  • Control – 3.31 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 54.5%

He does have a history of control issues (4.51 BB/9 for his career), so that’s going to be the key metric to watch.  If he can continue throwing strikes, even at his ’16 mark (4.11 BB/9) he has the highest upside of the uninspiring bunch.
Conclusion
At the end of the day the Blue Jays will likely use an uninspiring committee, and there’s a good chance none of the four names we’re currently eyeing end up claiming the role.  It makes sense to grab Tepera and/or Oh in hopes that they can get the job done, but at the end of the day the pitcher who arguably has the best chance to run with the role is Axford.  The savvy owner will stash him away now and see how things play out, though in general this is a situation we’d look to avoid.

Sources – MLB.com, Fangraphs

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  

7 comments

  1. Greg says:

    Would you drop osuna for any one of them in a 10 team league?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I’d probably hold him, at least until we got a little bit of clarity as to how long he could be out. I may feel differently if there was a clear-cut answer, but there isn’t

  2. Alps says:

    I am in need of saves
    Would you drop Bradley for either Oh;Tepera or Clippard

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I wouldn’t, because we have no clue who is going to step in. At least you know Bradley is the next man up

  3. Roderick Lewis says:

    Should Ozuna be dropped now or keep until further notice regardless of the league size…

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      I’d like to get a little bit of an idea as to how long he’ll be out before just dropping him

  4. Jack says:

    An informative but melancholic article. Thanks for the quick take, just scooped up Oh and Axford. We’ll see what happens.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *