by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
Are you searching for help on the waiver wire in an extremely deep league? It’s never easy, but here are a few names that may be tempting you. Are they worth it? Is there upside? Let’s take a look:
Johan Camargo – Atlanta Braves – Shortstop/Third Baseman
CBS Sports – 12%, ESPN – 3.1%
It felt inevitable that Alex Riley would emerge as the Braves third baseman by the All-Star Break, and the injury to Camargo coupled with Riley’s quick promotion to Triple-A and the Jose Bautista experiment just further fanned those flames. However, despite entering Sunday with a .221 average there’s reason to believe that things have changed as Camargo is flashing growth in his power along with potentially elite plate discipline.
While he’s never shown much power before, the 24-year old showed plenty of extra base power last season (30 doubles, 3 triples, 8 HR over 370 AB between Triple-A and the Majors). There’s no reason to doubt his 16.1% HR/FB and his 37.8% fly ball rate and favorable home ballpark help support a breakout (he has 5 HR thus far).
There also is reason to believe in a significant jump in his average:
- SwStr% – 7.6%
- O-Swing% – 23.4%
- Hard% – 45.1%
Despite those numbers he owns a .234 BABIP, so there’s little doubt that the production will improve.
More Power + Growing Average = Easy Addition
Verdict – Must Add
Yairo Munoz – St. Louis Cardinals – Shortstop/Third Baseman
CBS Sports – 10%, ESPN – 6.5%
Most thought it would be Jedd Gyorko getting every day AB with Paul DeJong on the DL, but Munoz had different plans. He was hitting .296 with 2 HR and 1 SB over 58 PA entering play on Sunday, after hitting .300 with 13 HR and 68 RBI over 446 AB between Double and Triple-A last year. While he’s made an impressive impact quickly, there’s reason to believe that the numbers are going to tumble:
- Strikeouts – 31.0% courtesy of ridiculously poor plate discipline (17.0% SwStr%, 47.2% O-Swing%); considering his 12.9% SwStr% in the minors last season, the gaudy numbers could easily continue
- Home Runs – He’s been a groundball machine in the Majors (61.1%) and benefited from a 25.0% HR/FB; considering his 11.7% HR/FB in the minors there’s reason to believe a regression is coming
Verdict – Too much risk to add
Greg Allen – Cleveland Indians – Outfielder
CBS Sports – 3%, ESPN – 1.2%
Allen has suddenly found himself getting regular AB in the Cleveland outfield, though with Bradley Zimmer back and Melky Cabrera also on the roster (as well as Lonnie Chisenhall closing in on a return) he’s going to need to continue hitting if he wants to remain in the lineup. He entered Sunday hitting .274 with 1 HR and 2 SB, though the underlying numbers definitely call that into question:
- BABIP – .373
- Strikeout Rate – 26.6%
- Walk Rate – 5.1%
Speed is Allen’s best asset, and while we’d expect a regression in his BABIP he should be able to maintain an elevated mark. As for the strikeouts/walks, a 9.6% SwStr% and 30.1% O-Swing% don’t support the inflated marks. Couple those things with a 39.6% Hard% and there’s reason to believe that he could continue to produce a strong average (even with a BABIP drop).
The bigger issue is that he’s hitting towards the bottom of the order, and that could limit his opportunity to run and score. Couple that with the potential to fall into a fourth outfielder role, and while he’s worth using today he’s the type of player to be ready to cut bait on quickly.
Verdict – Buy for Now, but don’t become attached
Sources – Fangraphs, CBS Sports, ESPN
Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings? Make sure to check it out by clicking here.