Expedition Saves: Who Is Currently The Favorite For Saves In Tampa Bay?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Tampa Bay Rays have quickly become one of the more frustrating teams when it comes to their pitching, whether you play in a Quality Start league (with a reliever often starting the game, it takes a QS out completely) or are searching for saves.  When it comes to the latter they appear set on a full out committee, but while Sergio Romo and Jonny Venters could factor in there appears to be two clear choices.  Who represents the most potential?  Let’s take a look:

 

Chaz Roe – Right-Handed Pitcher
2018 Statistics – 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.97 K/9, 3.38 BB/9

It’s interesting that Roe has seen a significant drop in his groundball rate (43.1%, compared to a career mark of 52.5%), but his control has improved significantly (career 4.24 BB/9).  It’s not that he’s changed his approach so there’s hope that he can improve his groundball rate, but over the first two months we’ve already seen a regression in his control:

  • April – 3.27 BB/9
  • May – 4.32 BB/9

The May mark appears much closer to the truth, and if he doesn’t get the groundball rate back up there are going to be significant concerns.  As a closer you can’t walk people and carry the risk of home run issues (1.27 HR/9), and that’s exactly what Roe would represent.

There’s no questioning his strikeout stuff, but at the end of the day there simply could be too many risks/stumbles to hand him the role.

 

Jose Alvarado – Left-Handed Pitcher
2018 Statistics – 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.30 K/9, 4.26 BB/9

We’ve talked about him a lot, but he continues to represent the best option for the team.  Whether they want to continue resisting the urge, due to him being left-handed, long-term financial concerns or another reason, remains to be seen.  That said he’s pairing strikeouts (12.4% SwStr%) with a big groundball rate (62.3%).

The control obviously is a red flag, but look at the split:

  • April – 3.21 BB/9
  • May – 5.19 BB/9

If he can get back to the April mark the sky is truly the limit, but even with the control issues he carries the other two skills and that’s enough.  It’s just a matter of when he truly gets an opportunity to run with the role, and that’s something we aren’t willing to predict given the team he plays for.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  

3 comments

  1. Craig N says:

    I have Alvarado at $1 ($260 cap) in a 12 team 5×5 roto keeper league….being offered lonnie Chisenhall at $9….make deal?

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