Rotoprofessor

By Jimmy Hascup

After last year’s postseason power explosion when B.J. Upton hit 7 HR in 66 at-bats, most people felt like it was an indication that this season was going to be the year where Upton’s physical tools matched scouts’ and fantasy owners’ dreams.   Upton plays the game of baseball effortlessly; his swing is smooth and flowing, he’s tireless on the field, has tremendous speed, and since finding a position on the field, he has become a dependable center fielder.

I’m not going to lie.  I thought B.J. Upton was going to be a top outfielder this year.  You look at the way he plays the game and you can’t prevent your jaw from dropping when you see his physical ability.  Then you look at his age, 24, and his resume in the major leagues, which is approaching his third full season, and you can’t stop yourself from being intrigued. Heck, even his name, “Bossman Junior” implies domineering qualities.

However, your infatuation ceases when you look at this season’s numbers (as of 8/1): 7 HR, 36 RBI, and a .244 BA.  If you’re an Upton owner, it’s possible you’ve pulled all the hair out of your head by now.  Despite such a remarkably frustrating year for Upton and the expectations associated with him, the aura surrounding Upton has yet to fade.  Should we expect any kind of rebound this year?

This isn’t a column on a young prospect, so I won’t delve too deeply into his minor league numbers.  However, his total minor league numbers include 1833 AB with 50 HR, 234 RBI, 154 SB, and a .297 BA.  Upton played at Triple-A when he was 19 years old and received a dose of the major leagues at the same age.  Because of some struggles at the plate and some widely documented defensive deficiencies while playing the infield, Upton was forced to the minor leagues a few more times as the Rays tried to find a position for him.

We can forget about Upton bouncing between the minors and the majors now.  In the big leagues, Upton has 1733 AB with 45 HR, 207 RBI, 113 SB, and a .269 BA.  For all the hype that has surrounded Upton throughout his career, I wouldn’t exactly call these numbers worthy of such praise. Since the 474 AB in 2007 where Upton batted .300 with 24 HR, 82 RBI, and 22 SB, Upton has been nothing more than a glorified Jacoby Ellsbury.  Sure the steals come at will; since 2007 Upton has had 76 steals.  But the power has disappeared, with just 16 HR (not counting the postseason) between his last two seasons.

I’m not going to deny the fact that Upton has tremendous ability.  But there’s a point in a season where we have to realize he’s just not going to put it altogether this year.  With 111 strikeouts this season (and 288 the last two years combined), Upton is going to have troubles taking his game to the next level for fantasy purposes.  His 28.4% strikeout rate ranks ninth in the major leagues.  His .324 BABIP also shows that his struggles don’t hinge on bad luck.

Looking at the dispersion of Upton’s contact, there is only one real number that jumps out at you.  His 42.8 percent fly-ball rate would make you think he has the power of a real 25-HR type hitter.  However, he’s only capitalized on his fly-balls with a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio, compared with his 10.5 percent career average.  A career rate of 10.5 percent is not bad at all, until you compare it with his 34.6 percent career fly-ball rate.  Maybe Upton is becoming a more fly-ball oriented hitter.  But maybe this year is a fluke. Upton’s power potential might be potentially skewed.

Let’s compare David Wright, a 25 HR type player.  Wright, albeit in a power slump this season, has a career 39.1 percent FB rate.  We know Wright isn’t a prolific HR hitter, but a career HR/FB of 14.2 percent has resulted in some very nice power totals over his career.  Upton’s rates compare unfavorably to Wright’s, yet expectations for Upton have him hitting 25 HR.  Suffice it to say, I don’t think Upton is a true homerun hitting outfielder.

Whenever it looks like Upton is going to turn the corner, he slumps mightily again.  For instance, in June Upton hit 5 HR with a .324 BA.  He’s then followed July with a .235 BA and 0 HR.  While we know Upton can go on a tear, I wouldn’t count on it.  For the past three seasons, Upton has hit worse in the second half of the season compared to the first: .269 BA to .292.  His power numbers of 19 HR in the second half to 15 HR in the first half, are pretty similar.

Of course, I still think Upton is a very good player.  If you want to win steals, Upton can surely help in that category.  I just don’t think he’s as good as we all make him out to be, until he shows me more consistent power and average production.

What do you guys think? Will Upton emerge as a force in the final months of the season? Or are you writing him off?