Waiver Wire Guidelines: Dominic Smith Returns, But Should We Care?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The Mets are shaking things up, and you can argue that it’s overdue at this point.  Gone are Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Lobaton, with Ty Kelly and Dominic Smith being summoned to replace them.  It’s interesting, though you can argue that this note from Mickey Callaway, courtesy of Joel Sherman of the New York Post (click here for the article) is more important:

“Callaway told me a few days ago that when Cespedes returns, he and Nimmo are going to play daily.”

Of course with Cespedes suffering a setback, as well as Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce continuing to struggle, that should’ve gone without saying.  Nimmo is a locked in fantasy option, and one settling into the middle of the order, as he could prove to be one of the biggest breakouts of the year.

From yesterday’s news, it would appear Smith is going to get his chance to play regularly in the Majors and prove he can handle first base.  However, does anyone truly have faith that can/will happen at this point?

Just look at the numbers he posted last year in the Majors and this year at Triple-A:

  • 2017 (Majors) – .198, 9 HR, 26 RBI over 167 AB
  • 2018 (Triple-A) – .260, 2 HR, 25 RBI over 219 AB

Playing in the Pacific Coast League, that lack of power is a significant red flag.  Sure he’s hitting the ball hard (26.2% line drive rate), and he’s been able to draw walks (11.5%), but at a position where power is a must he needs to show that he can deliver.  After being exposed last season (13.3% SwStr%, 35.5% O-Swing%), why should we believe?

At this point Smith is an easy player to ignore, outside of those in extremely deep formats (i.e. NL-Only).  More important for fantasy owners should be the trickle down effect, as you would think Peter Alonso would get an opportunity to fill Smith’s role at Triple-A.  Considering the numbers he’s posted at Double-A (.310 with 15 HR) and the control of the strike zone he has (49 K vs. 43 BB), he’s the player you should be excited about and who could arrive before long.

Fantasy Waiver Wire Guidelines:

  • 10 Team League – Don’t Add
  • 12 Team League – Monitor, but too shallow
  • 14+ Team League –Worth considering
  • NL-Only League – Must Add
  • Keeper/Dynasty – Worth considering (based on format above)

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com

2 comments

  1. Steve says:

    Hey Roto Professor, what do you think of this take?

    The real winner and the real prospect to watch with the Smith promotion is AA First Baseman Peter Alonso! With Smith promoted to the majors, this will allow the Mets to more easily promote Peter Alonso to AAA in short order. IMO, Alonso is a better fantasy prospect than Smith and that’s the guy we should be watching.

    I’m with you on Smith, I don’t think too highly of him… but Peter Alonso on the other hand…

    PS – I think I remember you writing about Alonso before.

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