Waiver Wire Guidelines: Are Two Recent Recalls Worth Our Attention?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

It’s easy to get excited about the shiny new toy on the waiver wire, especially when they show a little bit of upside.  Are they really worth the addition, though?  Let’s take a look at two recent recalls with upside and try to determine if they are worth it:

 

Tom Murphy – Colorado Rockies – Catcher
Murphy has always been an intriguing name for fantasy owners, and after raking at Triple-A (.289 with 16 HR over 209 PA) he’s back in the Majors and drawing some starts.  Should that get us excited though?

The first question is going to be playing time, especially since he’s one of three catchers currently on the roster (joining Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters).  It’s impossible to anticipate Murphy being in the lineup every day, though how many catchers are?  If he’s playing even 60% of the time he could become an intriguing option, assuming the Triple-A numbers are going to translate…

The problem is that’s a bit of a leap of faith.  The biggest issue is going to be in his average, as he was clearly taking a home run-centric approach and that’s simply not going to translate well:

  • Fly Ball Rate – 55.0%
  • Strikeout Rate – 27.3%
  • SwStr% – 16.0%

His average benefited from a .330 BABIP, a number that isn’t repeatable considering the fly ball rate.  The strikeout rate will also regress, something we’ve seen from him every time he’s stepped onto a Major League diamond (33.6% over 111 AB).  Sure there’s power, but there’s simply too much negative/playing time concerns to think that he’ll be a productive option.

Fantasy Waiver Wire Guidelines:

  • 10 Team League – Don’t Add
  • 12 Team League – Don’t Add
  • 14+ Team League –Worth considering
  • NL-Only League – Worth considering
  • Keeper/Dynasty – Worth considering (only in deeper formats)
  • Two-Catcher – Worth flier, but don’t expect much

 

Erick Fedde – Washington Nationals – Starting Pitcher
He’s long been an intriguing prospect, and with the Nationals trading away a lot of their upper level pitching prospects over the years he’s seemingly the last man standing as injuries have wiped out 40% of Washington’s rotation.  While Fedde has generally struggled when given an opportunity in the Majors, his start on Wednesday night against the Yankees has to be considered somewhat of a success (4 ER on 6 H and 1 BB over 5.0 IP).

Of course when you look at a 4.76 ERA at Triple-A you aren’t going to get excited, but his underlying numbers in his 11 starts (56.2 IP) show promise:

  • Strikeouts – 9.69 K/9
  • Control – 2.38 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 47.9%

Over his minor league career he owns an 8.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 (8.5 and 2.0, respectively, over 90.2 IP at Triple-A).  While his 9.5% SwStr% may not support this year’s bloated mark, he should be able to maintain a 7.5-8.0 K/9 with good control and plenty of groundballs.  With the Washington lineup behind him, that should allow him to be a productive starter while he’s in the rotation.

Fantasy Waiver Wire Guidelines:

  • 10 Team League – Don’t Add
  • 12 Team League – Streaming Option
  • 14+ Team League –Worth the Flier
  • NL-Only League – Must Add
  • Keeper/Dynasty – Worth the Flier

Sources – Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, MLB.com

Missed our Top 100 prospect rankings?  Make sure to check it out by clicking here.  

4 comments

  1. DB says:

    Would you drop Trey Mancini or Jonathan Schoop on a team w/a ton of infield depth in a 14 team league for either of these guys? Been waiting, and waiting, and waiting all season long for either of them to turn it around at the plate. IF you were to drop one of them, which would it be?

  2. Joe Carola says:

    I have Sanchez. Will ride out Murphy til Sanchez rights the ship.

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