Waiver Worthy: Looking At The Recent Hot Additions & Determining If They Are Worthy (Avisail Garcia & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

We all know who the hot additions around the league are, but are they worth the investment?  Should we be rushing to the wire in order to add them, or should we let somebody take the gamble.  Let’s take a look and try to decide:

 

Avisail Garcia – Chicago White Sox – Outfielder
CBS Sports Add Percent – 27%

It’s hard to argue against how hot he’s been of late (though a hamstring injury forced him from Sunday’s game), translating to an overall .281 with 9 HR, 17 RBI and 21 R over 139 AB.  Many assumed that he’d contribute a strong average (he hit .330 last season), so it’s the power surge that’s surprising.  That said, there’s a good chance that both regress moving forward.

Last season he benefited from an unrealistic .392 BABIP.  He’s down to .303 this season, and while he is hitting the ball hard (44.4% Hard%), he’s also become pull happy (49.1%) and would rank with the fifth highest mark if he had enough AB to qualify.  That will make him prone to extensive shifts, and when coupled with his poor approach the average is a legitimate concern:

  • SwStr% – 17.9%
  • O-Swing% – 47.1%

Things will look even worse if he proves incapable of maintaining his 25.0% HR/FB (15.8% for his career), and it’s possible he regresses all the way into the .250-.260 range.  Let others go race to the wire to add him, and the only reason I would make a move is with the intention of selling high (or riding the hot wave and then cutting bait).

 

Tyler Anderson – Colorado Rockies – Pitcher
CBS Sports Add Percent – 25%

Anderson brings with him the classic Coors Field dilemma.  However the southpaw hasn’t pitched too poorly in his home ballpark:

  • Home – 4.37 ERA
  • Road – 3.48 ERA

It’s not a devastating mark, but you have to wonder if it’s closer to the truth.  On the road he’s benefited from a .252 BABIP and 0.99 HR/9 (.305 and 1.71, respectively, on the road).  Sure you can point towards a 69.8% road strand rate and the expectation of more home runs at home, but with an overall 36.6% groundball rate the long ball will likely plague him regardless of where he pitches.  That was the case in 2017 (2.42 HR/9 on the road), and that helped lead to a 4.81 ERA overall.

He’s pitching well of late, but Anderson doesn’t represent a wise investment at the moment.

 

Matt Harvey – Cincinnati Reds – Pitcher
CBS Sports Add Percent – 15%

I think everyone wants to believe that Harvey is going to be able to rediscover his once dominant self and return to being a must own fantasy option.  Sure he’s pitched well as of late, allowing 2 ER or fewer in four straight starts, but is that really enough?

The key to his turn around in Cincinnati has been a 1.97 BB/9, because both the strikeouts (6.67 K/9) and groundball stuff (42.8%) continue to be lacking.  Even over this four game stretch he’s been hit or miss in terms of strikeouts (18 K over 24.0 IP) and he hasn’t been a groundball monster.  The fact that he’s gone five straight starts without allowing a HR is a positive, but sooner or later that’s going to catch up with him.

Without the strikeouts he’s never going to be the same pitcher he once was, and it’s just a matter of time before he implodes once again.

Sources – Fangraphs, CBS Sports

2 comments

  1. NK says:

    Hey Prof, I need a ROS outlook for a few pitchers, how would you rank:

    Robbie Ray
    Mike Clevinger
    Miles Mikolas
    Zack Godley
    Dylan Bundy

    Which two do you see being the most consistent for the rest of the year? Bundy to me is almost completely match up dependent now.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Bundy unfortunately is matchup dependent, only because of the division.

      I’d use Mikolas and Ray, with Godley right in the mix.

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