10 Important Stories from 09/28/18 Box Scores: Potential 2019 Overdrafts, Will Berrios/Glasnow Break Out & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

In an important sign for the Yankees, Aaron Judge hit one of the Yankees 4 HR finishing 2-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 3 R.  Robinson Cano continues to show that he still has something left, going 4-5 with 2 RBI and 2 R.  David Dahl did it again, going 1-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R, giving him home runs in five straight games.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s take a look:

 

1) Jose Berrios impresses in final start of 2018…
Taking on the White Sox he defeated Rodrigo Lopez (6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 5 K), who continued to struggle generating groundballs (2 groundballs vs. 10 fly balls) and had significant control issues.  As for Berrios he allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 4 BB, striking out 9, over 7.0 IP as he was getting swings and misses (17) and groundballs (8 groundballs vs. 4 fly balls).  It’s a nice way to finish, though he’s shown some control issues down the stretch (10 BB over final 18.2 IP).  That shouldn’t be a concern overall (2.77 BB/9 entering the day) and no one is going to question his strikeout stuff.  The question is if he’s going to be able to generate enough groundballs (40.9% entering the day) and not get burned by the long ball (1.21 HR/9).  Having thrown 192.1 innings this season there isn’t going to be any concerns in that regard, and he’s shown signs in terms of the groundball rate (45.9% in August).  A full breakout could come in ’19.

 

2) Is Gary Sanchez heating up at the right time for New York…
The Yankees hit 4 HR against Boston, and while Aaron Judge’s may have been the most important Sanchez’ isn’t far behind.  He finished going 2-4 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 2 R, giving him 2 HR in his past three games and drawing a walk in three straight (4-11, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R).  Entering the day his command of the strike zone has been similar to what he’s done in year’s past (12.0% SwStr%, 32.5% O-Swing%), with the problem being that he could be swinging for the fences (43.0% fly ball rate, compared to a 38.2% career mark).  That mark has been down in September (36.7%), and maybe that’s a good sign.  Time will tell and there’s a good chance he bounces back strong in 2019.

 

3) Mike Folytnewicz puts cherry on top of an impressive season…
He threw just 76 pitches, going 5.0 innings, against the Phillies and turned in a gem allowing 1 ER on 1 H and 0 BB, striking out 9.  He ends with a 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 202 K over 183.0 IP in what would appear to be a breakout season (at least on paper).  Of course there’s a good chance that the home run rate takes a significant step backwards in 2019 (0.86 HR/9 despite a 42.9% groundball rate entering the day), he doesn’t have numbers the support the gaudy strikeout rate (10.0% SwStr%, 26.3% O-Swing%) and there’s a good chance that his luck takes a significant step backwards (35.2% Hard%, .252 BABIP 77.4% strand rate).  He has overdraft written all over him, wouldn’t you say?

 

4) A mediocre finish for Tyler Glasnow…
Taking on the Blue Jays he allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 3 BB, striking out 9, over 5.1 IP as he allowed home runs to Teoscar Hernandez (2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R) and Rowdy Tellez (1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R).  He did generate 21 swinging strikes, which is highly impressive, but home runs have clearly become an issue (10 HR over 55.2 IP as a member of the Rays).  Pitching in the AL East that is always going to loom large, especially when coupled with his potential control issues (he entered the day with a 5.02 BB/9 in 191.2 IP in the Majors).  While the latter hasn’t been a big issue since coming to Tampa Bay, it also can’t be ignored.  The upside is there for big things to come, but there is enough risk not to consider it a given (especially having to routinely face the Yankees and Red Sox).  He likely won’t be more than a mid-rotation option, at best, heading into 2019.

 

5) Josh Donaldson continues to figure things out…
The Indians put up 10 runs in the seventh inning, giving Mike Clevinger (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K) all the breathing room he’d need.  Donaldson was right in the middle of the action, finishing the day going 2-4 with 1 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R.  Over his past seven games he’s now gone 10-26 with 2 HR, 6 RBI and 5 R, showing signs that he could be getting scorching hot.  Even more impressive is his 4 K vs. 5 BB over this stretch, and he has 8 K vs. 9 BB over his 44 AB as a member of the Indians.  Obviously it’s a lost season overall for the free agent to be, though he’s still hit the ball hard (38.9% Hard% overall) and his approach is clearly there.  It’s easy to imagine him really getting going and being a difference maker in October.

 

6) Just how real was Kyle Freeland’s “breakout”…
After defeating Washington yesterday, allowing 2 ER on 1 H and 1 BB, striking out 4, over 6.0 IP he finishes the year at 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA.  Those are eye opening numbers, but how much do we really believe?  He entered the day with an 82.8% strand rate, which alone kicks off alarm bells.  Then you throw in a 0.78 HR/9, despite a 46.3% groundball rate and pitching half his games in Coors Field, and things look that much worse.  Now factor in a modest 7.75 K/9, courtesy of an even less appealing 8.9% SwStr%, and control that isn’t elite and what exactly are we going to get excited about?  The surface numbers appear to be there, but at the end of the day it’s hard to imagine him coming even reasonably close to them moving forward.  No one will mistake him as an ace, but he’s more of a back-end option.

 

7) Lucas Giolito finishes with a whisper…
At times he showed signs of a breakout, but you wouldn’t know it from his terrible final start.  Taking on the Twins he allowed 7 ER on 5 H and 4 BB, striking out 2, over just 1.1 IP.  Mitch Garver returned to the lineup and led the way, going 4-5 with 6 RBI and 1 R, as the Twins won 12-4.  As for Giolito, he allowed 3+ ER in each of his final five starts (4+ ER in four of them), and ends with a 6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 173.1 IP.  There was nothing in the overall numbers that would excite you, considering his 125 K vs. 90 BB while also yielding 27 HR.  Maybe the once hyped prospect will finally start to figure things out at some point, but he entered with an 8.4% SwStr%, 26.8% O-Swing% and 44.4% groundball rate.  There was once promise and appeal, but he is going to need a complete 180 to reach viability.

 

8) Hyun Jin-Ryu simply continues to get the job done…
He defeated the Giants, allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 2 BB, striking out 3, over 6.0 IP and finishes allowing 1 ER over his final 19.0 IP.  Over 82.1 IP on the season he posted a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, showing more than enough strikeouts (89) and elite control (15 BB).  While injuries/missed time has generally been the biggest issue hanging over him, entering the day with an 83.8% strand rate and the potential to face home run issues (0.94 HR/9, 44.7% groundball rate) obviously loom large.  He’s always shown the ability to be an elite strike thrower and if he could stay healthy for the bulk of the season he has Top 30 stuff.  However when has he ever been able to do that?

 

9) An abbreviated, yet impressive, finish for Patrick Corbin…
He was pulled after 58 pitches and 5.0 IP, though when he was on the mound he was dealing against the Padres.  He allowed 0 R on 3 H and 1 BB, striking out 4, to give him a 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 246 K over 200.0 IP.  It will be interesting to see where he lands in the offseason, though regardless of where he ends up there is going to be a lot to be excited about.  He entered the day with believable luck metrics (74.2% strand rate, .304 BABIP), though we’d like to see a significantly lower Hard% (42.2%), and strong marks in his strikeouts (11.17 K/9), control (2.17 BB/9) and enough groundballs (48.6%).  One of the breakout pitches of 2018, there’s a good chance he’s able to carry it into 2019 and beyond.

 

10) Tucker Barnhart with a big day at the dish…
He doesn’t provide gaudy power numbers, so Barnhart is often overlooked by fantasy owners.  However after going 5-5 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R he’s currently hitting .249 with 10 HR on the season.  Again that’s not going to blow you away, and he does look a lot better for those in OBP formats (.329 OBP).  He has shown that he can consistently hit the ball hard (37.9% Hard%), which should yield better than his .284 BABIP, and while it’s not blow away power he plays a lot (457 AB) and could easily get into the 12-15 HR range in any given season.  Pair that with what should be a .270ish average, and from a catcher that’s borderline Top 10-12 production.  Don’t underestimate his appeal.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs

2 comments

  1. foolintherain says:

    RP: In the finals again this year, and as per usual, you’re a large part of why. Today I probably need 2 starters to make my weekly minimum in innings. May I ask how you’d rank Snell, Matz, Mikolas, Borucki? I’m leaning towards Snell and Matz and benching the rest.

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Hey man, first off thanks for the support and I apologize for missing this yesterday. The way it turned out it shouldn’t have mattered which way you went, as all pitched well.

      Hopefully you were able to take home the title!!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *