by Connor Henry
Welcome to the offseason dynasty rankings for first base. Below you will find 33 names ranked with ages and separated into tiers representing how fantasy viable they can be and for how many seasons. It does not directly represent the trade value of certain players, but I hope it enlightens you to the value of current production vs. age. Below the rankings are some thoughts about how the rankings were established, so without further adieu let’s dive in and take a look:
|1||Freddie Freeman – 29||Tier 1: Elite|
|2||Anthony Rizzo – 29|
|3||Paul Goldschmidt – 31||Tier 2: Next Best|
|4||Cody Bellinger – 23|
|5||Rhys Hoskins – 25|
|6||Jose Abreu – 31|
|7||Joey Votto – 35||Tier 3: Solid Options|
|8||Matt Olson – 24|
|9||Joey Gallo – 25|
|10||Matt Carpenter – 33|
|11||Edwin Encarnacion – 35|
|12||Max Muncy – 28|
|13||Jesus Aguilar – 28|
|14||Peter Alonso (P) – 23||Tier 4: Value Picks|
|15||Jake Bauers – 23|
|16||Josh Bell – 26|
|17||Yordan Alvarez (P) – 21|
|18||Jurickson Profar – 25|
|19||Tyler White – 28|
|20||Carlos Santana – 32|
|21||Miguel Cabrera – 35|
|22||Eric Hosmer – 28|
|23||Nathaniel Lowe (P) – 23||Tier 5: Willing to take a Chance|
|24||Luke Voit – 27|
|25||Ryan McMahon – 23|
|26||Brent Rooker (P) – 24|
|27||Jose Martinez – 30|
|28||Brandon Belt – 30|
|29||Yonder Alonso – 31|
|30||Brendan McKay (P) – 22|
|31||CJ Cron – 28|
|32||Ian Desmond – 33|
|33||Josh Naylor (P) – 21|
Other options: Justin Smoak, Justin Bour, Bobby Bradley (P), Kevin Cron (P)
Tier 1: Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo seem interchangeable in dynasty formats. Overall, these two 29-year old’s should have plenty of good years performing amongst the top of the position.
Tier 2: With the recent trade to St. Louis Goldschmidt might get a slight boost for 2019, but after seeing a rapid decline in his stolen bases it’s hard to rank him in the top tier. Already 31 he should still hit 30 HR and steal some bases, but the drop off looks sooner for him than the two in the top tier. Cody Bellinger, still only 23, has enormous upside and comes in next due to his huge power potential and improving speed. Now with OF eligibility I see no reason why he shouldn’t have a massive fantasy season. Hoskins, much like Bellinger, may never hit .300 but should provide huge power numbers for years to come. Jose Abreu closes out this tier and after a down year should once again be able to hit .290 with around 30 HR. Don’t overlook him due to his age and decline in production last year because the underlying numbers look very similar to previous years.
Tier 3: This tier presents a good mix of reliable veterans and interesting younger options. Votto, even after a down year in the power department, still possesses some of the best plate discipline in the league and should return good value for a few more seasons. Carpenter and Encarnacion should each continue to provide solid pop even with a slight decline in the batting average department. Carpenter gets the nod over Encarnacion due to the age difference and multi-position eligibility. The younger guys in this category all possess huge power upside. Olson and Gallo get the slight nod over Muncy and Aguilar due to age and 40+ home run pop, but Muncy and Aguilar might have the ability to sustain higher averages with the pop they possess. Any of these four first baseman should be solid assets for years to come if they are each given the everyday job.
Tier 4: One of the interesting prospects in this tier is Peter Alonso, who should get a chance early in 2019 to show his power potential. Yordan Alvarez also presents an interesting profile with some pop, speed and batting average. It remains to be seen what position he ends up playing but his bat should fit almost everywhere. Jake Bauers and Josh Bell rank next to each other despite underwhelming 2018 seasons. Along with the power they both possess, Bauers presents speed upside and Bell presents batting average upside, and with age on their side I’m not counting them out yet. Profar and White both burst onto the scene this year and while Profar presents the higher upside with both power and speed, White showed impressive contact and power skills. If both are given full time jobs they will be solid assets for years to come. The last three players in this tier are Carlos Santana, Miguel Cabrera and Eric Hosmer, who could all help you in the next couple of seasons but obviously don’t have the same longevity as the names above them.
Tier 5: As with the dynasty catcher rankings, this tier could be ranked 1,000 different times and all of them could be correct. From interesting prospects like Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Naylor and Brendan McKay to grizzled vets like Ian Desmond and Yonder Alonso, I believe they all deserve a spot on deep dynasty rosters. They may never win you your league but could be solid options if you’re willing to take the chance on them.
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