Rotoprofessor

Scott Baker’s overall numbers have not been impressive this season, but that’s not because he has been pitching poorly.  A bit of bad luck has certainly plagued him, but before we get into that let’s look at his line for the season thus far:

12 Wins
153.0 Innings
4.47 ERA
1.15 WHIP
125 Strikeouts (7.35 K/9)
30 Walks (1.76 BB/9)
.288 BABIP

Way back in February, I dubbed him as a pitcher worth targeting towards the tail end of your draft to help in WHIP (click here for the article), and he certainly lived up to that type of hype.  Do not discredit the number as a fluke, because Baker has shown this type of ability since coming onto the scene in 2005.

The walk rate is believable, considering what he has done throughout his career:

• 2005 - 2.35
• 2006 - 1.73
• 2007 - 1.82
• 2008 - 2.19

Couple that with a BABIP that places him in a tie for 30th in the league.  Granted, it is a little bit better than average, but even he were to regress to around the .300 mark, it’s not going to make a huge difference.  If he had allowed 154 hits this season (he has allowed 146), his BABIP would rise to .301, and in turn would put his WHIP at 1.20.  Basically, it would still be an exceptional number, just not as impressive.

Where he has struggled has been in the HR (22 allowed) and his strand rate (currently at 68.8%).  Those two numbers have helped contribute to his less than stellar ERA.

The home runs have him in a tie for ninth worst in the league and are already more than what he allowed over 172.1 innings last season.  Unfortunately, the long ball is something that has plagued him throughout his major league career.  His HR/9 this season is at 1.29, not much higher than the 1.17 for his career.

Since the All-Star Break Baker has been among the leagues best pitchers.  In 8 starts he’s 5-0 with 2.61 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 51.2 innings.  He’s done a significantly better job keeping the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 4 HR (0.70 HR/9).

In August, his strand rate has nearly matched that of his career, sitting at 72.9% thus far.

The moral of this story is that by just glancing at the ERA you would be overlooking a pitcher who could help your team in all formats.  He is absolutely on a tear right now, but even in the first half, when he had a 5.42 ERA, he had an impressive WHIP of 1.22.  That’s a huge help to any team and you had to know that sooner or later his luck would start to turn.

While he’s not an exceptional strikeout pitcher, he’s not going to hurt you either.  At this point he clearly is a must start pitcher and he is once again going to enter 2010 as a great, below the radar guy.  With the type of WHIP he’s proven capable of posting for two years running now (in 2008 he had a 1.18), it’s just a matter of time before he posts an overall Cy Young type season.

That’s a story for another day and I’m sure my prediction for him will be interesting.  For now, let’s just focus on 2009 and the fact that he could help steer your team to a championship.  If you are in a league where he’s available (and he’s only owned in 67% of Yahoo leagues), do not hesitate to grab him.

What do you think of Baker?  Is he a pitcher that you think can help your team the rest of the way?

To read the previous article, click here.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.