Undervalued in 2010: Jason Hammel
By Tim Lawrence
For most of us in competitive leagues, the difference between competing for the title or missing the playoffs is not going to be which stars we have on our roster, or who we choose in the first 6 or 7 rounds. What generally makes the difference is finding undervalued players in the mid to late rounds in yearly draft leagues or bargains in auction leagues, or the ability to make deals for these guys in our dynasty leagues. Though Jason Hammel finally broke through in 2009 for the Rockies to get regular starts and found some moderate success (4.32 E.R.A., 10 wins) there is good reason to believe that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
Hammel has always been a pitcher with upside. He originally came up through the Tampa system and was traded in April of 2009 to the Rockies for prospect Aneury Rodriguez, since he was out of options at the time and was beaten out of the Rays 5th starting spot out of spring training by Jeff Neimann. He has a low 90’s plus fastball with good movement, and plus curveball and an average change-up. His biggest struggle has always been command, but this was the area where he made huge strides in 2009, at age 26. From 2008 to 2009, he improved his K/BB ratio from a dismal 1.26 to a very solid 3.17. He did this by both improving his K/9 from 5.06 to 6.77 and improving his BB/9 ratio from 4.02 to 2.14.
Hammel’s progress with command finally allowed him to stake a claim to a starting spot, and he was very solid down the stretch in August and September, posting 3.86 E.R.A., 1.23 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 3.65 K/BB. If he can build on this into next year, we could see some nice numbers from him. Further, luck seemed to conspire against him a bit in 2009, with a hit rate (BABIP) a tad high at .357 even for Coors Field, given his GB ratio of 47%, and his strand rate a bit low at 70.2%.
Hammel’s 2009 numbers and 2nd half improvement support the fact that we may be seeing skill consolidation; his luck factors point to the possibility that he was better than his statistics showed in 2009. At the end of the year, only 3% of ESPN fantasy teams had him rostered, which tells us he’s still flying under the radar. For 2010 yearly leagues, consider snagging Hammel late in the draft, especially in deeper leagues, or NL only leagues. For dynasty leagues, he might still be available, or at least undervalued. As long as he pitches at Coors, his WHIP will always be a little high, but even considering that, now could be the time to strike.
Projection: 13 wins, 3.89 E.R.A., 1.30 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Tim Lawrence is the creator of Dynasty Mine, a website devoted to fantasy baseball analysis from a keeper and dynasty league perspective.
I also really like Hammel for 2010. His September numbers were sick:
9.08 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, 5.00 K/BB. 3.43 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, but an ERA of 4.08 in 39 2/3 innings.
A lot of value there. Groundball/strikeout pitchers are perfect for Coors. Have to give Colorado front office a ton of credit for this pickup. Still pretty young too.
Welcome aboard, Tim! Nice work on this. I didn’t even realize Hammel had this much going for him last season, but he’ll be on my radar now come draft day as a sleeper, because I’m sure many others will not have realized his underlying rates.
Tim, I would agree that he’s an interesting sleeper, but I’m not sure I would peg him for an ERA under 4.00. He’s just struggled and posted sub par numbers for too long that one two month hot stretch isn’t going to convince me.
Still, as a late round sleeper in deeper leagues, you certainly could do worse.
Hammel had 5.73 ERA at Coors last year.
Hammel has struggled with his command like alot of young pitchers do…There is a pretty well established learning curve for pitchers, and most of the time, until starters have around 500 MLB IP under their belt, you can’t be sure what the pitcher is going to give you. Hammel has 384 IP. He’s only now been given the opportunity. Is their risk? Sure, so don’t pay alot for him, but consider him at the end of your draft in deep leagues. My own 20 team Dynasty League keeps 17 major leaguers - We don’t cut down until February, but there is a good chance he’s going to end up a keeper for someone, so he probably won’t even be available. We have 12 pitching categories also, so its not only about ERA.
Miles - I know he had a 5.73 E.R.A. at Coors. But E.R.A. itself is not always the best indicator of the skill level of a pitcher because it includes a lot of “noise” - luck factors, defense, the effects of your bullpen, among other things. I posted already that his BABIP was on the high side for Coors, and that there were some luck factors contributing to E.R.A in general. And we all know that most pitchers for Colorado will have significant home/road splits. So what’s your point? If you are merely saying that the upside has some limits because of the ball park then I’d agree.
Tim - How many pitcher positions do you have on your roster in your 20 team league?
I play in 10 team 5X5 leagues and consider ERA an important stat despite all the “noise.”
Miles -
Sorry for the lack of a timely response…My 20 team keeper league has 5 starters, 4 relievers, and 2 wild card pitcher positions (either RP or SP). So I imagine your 10 team 5×5 league will be vastly different. In your league, Hammel is probably an end game pick at best, to put on your bench for now, or just a guy to keep on your radar. He ranks as my 30th best starting pitcher in terms of skills, but closer to 50th best in terms of what I expect for results.