Rotoprofessor

by Jimmy Hascup

With major league general managers seeking to provide their fans with some early holiday gifts, yesterday afternoon saw the most activity, to date, this winter. If you are a fan of a small market team, however, yesterday’s speculated personnel movement didn’t include you. Again, the rich seemed to get richer, while the lesser market teams appear to be standing around, waiting for some sort of holiday discount.

In case some of the readers aren’t aware: not only did Hideki Matsui agree to a one-year trade with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Phillies are reportedly set to acquire Roy Halladay in a three-team trade that has them parting ways with Cliff Lee to Seattle. And of course, since the Bronx Bombers made their big splash with Curtis Granderson, the Red Sox were not to be outdone - with a monumental signing of their own, in John Lackey for five years. There are also reports that Mike Cameron is set to sign a two-year pact with the Sox, but we’re going to wait until everything (including the three-team trade) is sorted out before breaking down those agreements. So definitely check back later today or tomorrow for the latest on those.

A believer in the age-old adage that pitching wins championships, the Sox’s signing of John Lackey has to be the biggest free-agent coup from my perspective. Even with Jason Bay and Matt Holliday still left on the market, if I had a top free-agents list prior to this offseason, Lackey would lead the pack.

The former Angels ace, Lackey has a career 3.81 ERA, though what’s intrigued me the most  was his performance in the playoffs back in October. Though he only recorder one win, Lackey threw 19.2 innings and allowed just five earned runs - 2.92 ERA, against the powerful Red Sox and Yankee lineups. He also struckout 14 batters. The fear of signing a pitcher who shies away from the big stage couldn’t have even entered the minds of the Boston’s Theo Epstein and Co. Lackey epitomizes a pitcher who can get the job done, even when his stuff may be off on a given day, because he can buckle down and understands how to make adjustments on the fly. The injury concerns of the past two seasons that have limited his innings totals to under 200 are definitely worth mentioning, yet if Lackey is able to stay away from the injury bug this year, he’s almost a lock to eclipse that plateau.

The Red Sox may have one of the most imposing pitching trios in baseball. Josh Beckett will most likely be the opening day starter, though Lackey will provide the Red Sox with exceptional value as a two, or as a three - if the Sox split up the two righties in the rotation with Jon Lester. Fenway Park is a bit more hitter friendly than Angels Stadium, but not by too much.

The fact that Lackey will be moving from the AL West - whose teams averaged 17 out of 32 in runs scored - to the AL East, with three top ten offenses should be what concerns fantasy owners the most for next season. Even though the Red Sox will be atop of the majors in offenses, it’s still worth noting that the in-division competition will be a bit more tougher for Lackey.

Despite the red flags, Lackey should continue to be a top-20 fantasy pitcher - with injuries my only worries. Last season’s underlying rates indicate that Lackey’s 3.83 ERA was believable. His .309 BABIP was realistic and his 71.2 percent strand-rate was close enough to his 73.1 percent career mark. Lackey was able to limit the longball from 1.43 per 9 last season to 0.87 per 9 this year. Further, he only allowed 9.1 percent of his flyballs for homeruns this year - right on par with his career norm. The reason I mention the homeruns is because as Lackey’s strikeouts continue to decline, he’s going to have to be extra-tough at preventing the longball. His 7.09 K/9 mark this season was his smallest rate since 2004, when he had a 4.67 ERA. His batted ball rates indicate that nothing has gone awry for Lackey in that regard, so that is encouraging from a fantasy standpoint for next season.

Lackey’s FIP this season was a 3.73, indicating really how good the Angels’ defenders were. Normalizing his homerun rate, his xFIP suggests that a 3.92 ERA would be more realistic. As a fantasy owner, I’ll take anything in between those rates.

With rumors of Cameron replacing Bay, Scutaro replacing Alex Gonzalez/Jed Lowrie/Julio Lugo, and possibly Mike Lowell (though it’s still up in the air) departing and Adrian Beltre filling the void, the Red Sox should go from a slightly below average fielding team, to a very good one. Defense is always the x-factor for pitchers’ stats and the Boston rotation should be the beneficiary of some great glove work.

No matter what, fantasy owners should take Lackey with confidence next year, as a great number two option… with the possibility of being a low-end number one.

What do you guys think of this signing for the Red Sox? Will Lackey last a full year? How do the injury concerns affect his prospects?

Previous Fantasy Impacts of Recent Transactions:

• Hermida to Boston
• Teahen for Fields & Getz
• Iwamura to Pittsburgh
• Hardy for Gomez
• Shoppach to Tampa Bay
• Wagner to Atlanta
• Polanco, Scutaro, Fox & Zaun
• Granderson-Scherzer-Jackson Blockbuster
• Millwood, Harden, Wolf & More
• Figgins, Lowell & More