Rotoprofessor

by Jimmy Hascup

This was supposed to be one of the weaker free-agent crops in quite a while. Especially over the past 24 hours the GM’s in baseball ignored that assessment, some doing whatever it takes to put their team over the hump. Despite the drop-off in talent between the top-tier players and more middle-of-the-road ones, the hot stove has really been kicked into gear lately. The economic straits facing the country has caused some teams to sit still (or quite possibly to use the times as an excuse for a depleted payroll), while others continue to search for those select pieces that will propel their franchise to the next level. Here are some of the deals that will impact those in fantasy leagues:

• Angels sign Hideki Matsui: So far this offseason the Angels have lost two important cogs to their playoff run last season. Losing Chone Figgins will put a dent at the top of the order and failing to resign John Lackey, their former ace, will severely weaken their rotation. Even though the Angels ranked second in the league in scoring runs, they didn’t do so by knocking the ball out of the park. On Monday, they bolstered their lineup by bringing in the former Yankees DH, Hideki Matsui. The addition of Matsui will provide the Angels with an excellent run-producing three to six spots in the order and signals a transition away from Vladimir Guerrero. But what will Matsui do for fantasy owners? The injury concerns of ‘08 had many doubting Godzilla’s chances for ‘09. He didn’t play a full slate of games, with just 142, yet was able to put up 28 HR, 90 RBI, and a .274 AVG. A career .292 hitter, Matsui’s subpar .275 BABIP shows that an increased average could be on the horizon for the new Angel. He struckout 16.4 percent of the time, which is his highest mark since his sophomore campaign, and improved his fly-ball rate to 42 percent last season and his line-drive rate to over 20 percent. Matsui was able to convert on 17.4 percent of his fly-balls for homeruns this year, which was a new career-high. I wouldn’t expect him to put up homeruns at that rate again, but if he can sustain a fly-ball rate near 40 percent, he will continue to put up usable power. Matsui’s left/right splits were nearly identical last season, so there’s no worry about him fading against lefties. In addition, he hit better on the road: .286/.383/.567 than at home .265/.354/.462. His health is the only hindrance for him - otherwise, he is a lock for 20-plus HR and 90 RBI… all fantasy-worthy numbers, even at a DH spot.
• Red Sox sign Mike Cameron: I’d say the biggest impact Cameron will have is on the defensive end for the Red Sox, especially since Bay is gone. Bay had a a -11.2 UZR/150 games, while the ex-Brewer had one of 10.3 in center field. Playing left field can be tricky in Fenway - and there’s a chance Ellsbury moves to left, but I’m sure Cameron will do just fine wherever he plays. For fantasy purposes, Cameron is a fringy depth outfielder, whose value I see rising slightly with the move to both a better hitting lineup and hitter-friendly ballpark. The production with the Brewers is pretty much what you’ll get from Cameron, even with the Red Sox. He’ll strikeout a ton, around 150 times a year; he’ll hit with some power, 20-plus homeruns in eight seasons with around 70 RBI; and a pretty dreadful batting average. He batted .250 last year, right in-line with his career norm, so any improvement with the Sox shouldn’t be highly anticipated - especially since his .308 BABIP was extremely feasible and repeatable. Still, someone who can swat 20 homers, drive in at least 70, and steal 15 bases is more than adequate in larger leagues. Just make sure to have other higher-average guys on your team to offset his feeble one.
• White Sox acquire Juan Pierre: The two pitchers the Dodgers will reportedly acquire are  Jon Link and John Ely. Link is a reliever who posted a 10.5 K/9 ratio last season in Triple-A, with a 3.02 ERA. Ely is a starter, who finished the year in Double-A, but had a tidy 2.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 7.2 K/9. Both are expected to compete for roster spots next season - or at least contribute in 2010. Everyone knows that Pierre’s playing time has been severely rationed over the past two years - he only totaled 380 at-bats last season. However, he has a chance to start again with the White Sox, since Andruw Jones can’t be expected to pose a real threat. If Pierre plays, we know what he’s capable of: he’s a basestealing machine, who puts up an average around .300. Even with his speed, he’s not the prototypical top of the order guy because he doesn’t walk much, though he’ll rarely strikeout either. Consequently, his on-base skills are directly tied to his batting average. He’ll be a lock for at least 40 steals, which is definitely desired for by fantasy owners, and he should be a great runs source. I’d expect Pierre to reclaim his position as a top-steal guy in baseball. He won’t do much else, but he’s durable, so that’s an issue owners won’t have to worry about, which is rare in this day and age.

What does everyone think of these moves? Who was the biggest winner? Will you be targeting anyone in your draft?

Previous Fantasy Impacts of Recent Transactions:

• Hermida to Boston
• Teahen for Fields & Getz
• Iwamura to Pittsburgh
• Hardy for Gomez
• Shoppach to Tampa Bay
• Wagner to Atlanta
• Polanco, Scutaro, Fox & Zaun
• Granderson-Scherzer-Jackson Blockbuster
• Millwood, Harden, Wolf & More
• Figgins, Lowell & More
• Lackey to the Red Sox