I want to try out something a little bit different to see how it works and if it is a concept we’ll continue throughout the offseason. For certain players, all I’m going to do is post my projection with just a few bullet points as reasoning. This will hopefully open the floor to some conversation about the player, with you sharing if you agree or disagree and why. Besides your comments on the player, please let me know if you like this or not.
Let’s kick things off with Scott Baker:
195.0 IP, 14 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 167 K (7.71 K/9), 47 BB (2.17 BB/9)
- It is easy to overlook Baker, but in a “down” season, he still managed to post a WHIP of 1.19. For his career he has a 2.12 BB/9, so there is no reason to think that it won’t continue.
- The strikeouts have been consistent at 7.36 and 7.29 K/9s the past two seasons. That’s certainly a number that is going to be helpful and one I think he can grow on.
- The new stadium is going to be something that has a huge influence on him. He’s a flyball pitcher, posting a 47.1% flyball rate in 2009, so if the new park plays like a hitter’s park he is going to be in trouble.
- He had a slightly below average strand rate of 70.5% last season. Of pitcher’s with at least 180 innings (58), it was tied for tenth worst. That should improve, which is why I have his ERA where I do.
- The projection is based on a BABIP of .293.
So, there you have my thoughts. What do you think? Can he live up to these projections? Why or why not?